Most UNDER/OVER-VALUED Player Predictions...

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 2:13 pm

I rather like this post. Drafting under rated players, whether that means taking a 3rd guy in the 1st or 2nd, or, taking a nobody in the 24th, is how you do well in these things. But taking the back up to the over rated guys is how you win these things.

Couldn't help notice Seefer called Ryan over rated and ended up taking Julio. I wonder how many other posters took the backups to their over rated picks?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 2:20 pm

bjoak: I may be wrong but I think that a winking icon may imply the tone of sarcasm. If you couple that with the fact that Carlos Beltran went very early in EVERY first round of the entire competition (but doesn't hit for avg.) it seemed like seefer was only pointing out that your point was not that farfetched at all. Obviously, if Dunn improves his avg, it will help his status but he doesn't need to do that necessarily to get that 1st rd push.

Aye. Always a problem with writing that you can't hear tone of voice clearly. I just figured the winking eye meant he was trying to get my goat so one way or another he wins.

Hey, I can't get these evil fish off my tail. Someone throw out some bait or something.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 2:44 pm

Undervalued Hitters

Pat Burrell - avg will improve plus at least 35 HR

Placido Polanco - hits over .300, will get around 500 AB

Khalil Greene - hits 20 HR this yr in spite of Petco, drafted in the 17th rd

Rob Mackowiak - will get some decent playing time delivering power and speed along with multiple-position eligibility at a very low cost

Craig Wilson - is Carlos Delgado really 10 rds better ?

Morgan Ensberg - hits for avg and the HRs could come back if healthy/ playing every day

Overvalued hitters

Barry Bonds - ok, now its obvious, but even before, he's 41 and his drug dealer is out of business

Jason Giambi - wasn't on my draft board

Jim Edmonds - not a 3rd rounder

Garret Anderson - what is this fascination with old guys that were good 2-3 years ago ?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:05 pm

Undervalued Pitchers

Kerry Wood - lasted into the 7th-9th rd in some drafts

Freddy Garcia - will win a lot for the Chisox

Wade Miller - picked up in the 29th rd, I'll take my chances from there

Oliver Perez - 5th rd pick, who will win the K Crown this yr - Johan, Pedro or Oliver?

Borowski - before he broke his hand, he WAS the closer no doubt

Overvalued Pitchers

Bonderman - Later in the draft OK, but it was like a Bonderman frenzy - whoever got him did so with pride while others groan. C'mon. I've gotta go with what "just some guy from Michigan" says.

Javier Vazquez - he is pitching for ARZ right? That could make 10 wins a challenge.

R Halladay - too soon for Roy, consistently

T Percival - his IP could hurt more than you expect

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:22 pm

KJ: What's a fair price for Halladay?

6th round? 7th round? later?

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:24 pm

Originally posted by :

Overvalued hitter:

1) Bonds

2) M. Rameriz

Undervalued hitters:

1) Overbay (Battle for batting title with Ichrio

2) M. Cabera (Battle for HR title with over 50 this year)

3) Griffey with hit 56 HR'S this year and people will forget about BONDS!!

4) Clint Barmes will show why he is in Jeter class.

Overvalued pitchers:

1) Randy Johnson

2) Clemens

Undervalued pitchers:

1) Smoltz (will show why he is the best)

2) Jeff Francis (The next great K-King even in Coors)

3) Bonderman (Tiger Ace!!)

4) Harden

5) Peavey (Last year was the start!!) Please be sure to pass the doobie. "Tiger Ace" is a meaningless word-set since Jack Morris. Don't ever recommend a Colorado pitcher - ridiculous.

Lyle Overbay batting title? Are we talking Dave Kingman Junior here?

Barmes/Jeter?

Griffey with 56 ?

Just pass the doob, man.

D

JAR · Post by **JAR** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:30 pm

Dvy - you seem to have a lot of opinions about others predictions.. care to make any of your own?

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:34 pm

Originally posted by JAR:

Dvy - you seem to have a lot of opinions about others predictions.. care to make any of your own? Sure, what info are you looking for?

JAR · Post by **JAR** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:36 pm

(see original post under this thread)

Bandit · Post by **Bandit** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:39 pm

One observation, it seems like some have Freddy overrated and some underrated, might he be the player with the highest standard deviation in valuation?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:57 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:

KJ: What's a fair price for Halladay?

6th round? 7th round? later? I see Halladay (going in the 5th), and Zito and D-Train (both around the 11th) all putting up very similar numbers. Freddy going near the 10th with slightly better value. Which rds for you on Roy and Freddy?

[ March 23, 2005, 10:00 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:20 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:

KJ: What's a fair price for Halladay?

6th round? 7th round? later? I see Halladay (going in the 5th), and Zito and D-Train (both around the 11th) all putting up very similar numbers. Freddy going near the 10th with slightly better value. Which rds for you on Roy and Freddy? [/QUOTE]I left my papers behind when I had to rush out of Vegas, so not positive. Halladay was 6th or 7th and Garcia 10th or 11th ?

D

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:22 pm

Originally posted by JAR:

(see original post under this thread) All value is relative... in my draft power hitters were neglected in favor of trendy scarcity or pitching speculation. I think I got Wily Mo Pena in the 25th or 26th round? I didn't need him, but I had to take him at that point.

Telling someone Bonderman is over-rated isn't true if you got him in the 21st round, etc.

Dyv

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:22 pm

Dyv, you didn't get Mo Pena any later than the 25th. I was on the verge of taking him. It was only because there were some other good backups with chances (like DaVannon) that I kept off that long. He really is a good pick.

I think Go Baby Go was pulling legs. His predicions were too bad to be honest. I'm dead serious here. Anyone who is going to predict 56 homers AND not even mention injury for Griffey can't be serious. I didn't agree with most of the predictions and those mentioned had no reasoning behind them. Visit vague fantasy message boards and people say stuff like, "I like Bernie Williams. Lot of upside there." I don't think people here are dumb enough to make vague statements without qualifying them in any way. Even the couple that sounded reasonable, like, I think, Harden and Peavy sounded sarcastic in a way. Notice it was a guest user. Could have been Gekko having fun or something.

[ March 23, 2005, 11:24 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

kd.gray · Post by **kd.gray** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:22 pm

___________________________________________

Bonderman is better than Weaver. It's a no-brainer. His league and his defense may run up his era, tho. It has in the past.

_________________________________________

If Bonderman's ERA goes up (for any reason), doesn't that by definition make the other guy a better fantasy pick? $100K is not going to be won on potential, it will be won by who has the best stats.

A couple hitters that I think will perform better than their draft positions are Ibanez and Trot Nixon.

For the pitchers, I have trouble seeing Chris Carpenter repeating last year.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:05 pm

Totally agree with you KD on Bonderman He went in 6th rd in NY#5 At best a solid #3 SP ERA will be 4.65 Also will get hurt pitching at Chi Cle and Minn Not just because I have him on my roster but Halladay I picked up in 9th rd Dont get me wrong here but to me Crawford is OVER Valued Any leg injury for him or any other speed guy makes them useless Heres a good question Who is more valueable Crawford in 1st Rd or Pods in Rd 4 ?

My projections for Pods in Chi hitters park Hitters Division are 271 102 14 46 50 though that 50 could be more Crawford 295 100 16 52 58 Pods at 4 0r 5 is much more the value pick than Crawford in 1st Not too mention Sox lineup vs Rays line up or Favorable ball park I love the fantasy ratings that a lot of people use as their Bible Sometimes you have to go with your gut as opposed to so called experts that way you can only blame youeself. Side note to all readers of USA Todays Fantasy Baseball weekly publication. I could not stop laughing at their again so called experts ratings Some are just too funny Kind of wish it came out last week because about 15-20 Per cent of league managers would use their projections

Marty

seefer · Post by **seefer** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:11 am

Question: why is everyone projecting 45-50 SBs for Podsednik? Last year he hit .244 and stole 70 bases! I gotta think his AVG. and OBP will go up this year and Ozzie Guillen likes the small ball approach.

Everybody is so quick to say that Crawford COULD steal 70 bags this year. Well guys, Podsednik DID steal 70 bags last year.

[ March 24, 2005, 07:16 AM: Message edited by: seefer ]

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:49 am

Seefer thats my point and of course the reason I took Pods at 4 I think he will lead league in stealing hands down I projected 50 but thats a consevative number Chicago is a hitters park Manager has given him carte blanche to steal at will Even if he hits 265 he should be better than Crawford in steals runs which why unless I am missing something His value at 4 or 5 is tenfold over Crawford in 1st Guess you took Pods too LOL

Marty

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:03 am

Pods is a career .255 hitter throughout minors and majors. I would not expect more than .260 as he is just not that talented. He also does not walk enough and has a pretty awful obp for lead off. The only thing helping him is his manager is awful and will likely keep him there all season, which at least insures more plate appearances.

Expect 55-60sbs, a poor average, not a lot of runs due to weak obp. However, SBS are tough to find.

Crawford is not the greatest 1st round pick, but to suggest Pods is better in the 4th that a late Crawford in the 1st is nonesense. Crawford will it .300 in my opinion, potential for 20-25 HRS, and get a pile of runs as well, plus steal 65-75 bases. He is darn close to a 5 category player now, and as season continues and he matures, he will be great. I dont have either player for the record.

Crawford any part of the second round is a steal. Podsednick in the 6th-8th is where he should have gone. Anything sooner and you overpaid for sbs.

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:05 am

Originally posted by MGBMARTY:

Seefer thats my point and of course the reason I took Pods at 4 I think he will lead league in stealing hands down I projected 50 but thats a consevative number Chicago is a hitters park Manager has given him carte blanche to steal at will Even if he hits 265 he should be better than Crawford in steals runs which why unless I am missing something His value at 4 or 5 is tenfold over Crawford in 1st Guess you took Pods too LOL

Marty SUPER sleeper of the year...very PODS like....

WILLY TAVERAS....may steal 50 with 300 average! almost guaranteed an OF spot in depleted Houston, Biggio demanded that he play 2nd and Burke is a bust...way more valuable at this point than a banged up Pierre!

JAR · Post by **JAR** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:16 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by JAR:

(see original post under this thread) All value is relative... in my draft power hitters were neglected in favor of trendy scarcity or pitching speculation. I think I got Wily Mo Pena in the 25th or 26th round? I didn't need him, but I had to take him at that point.

Telling someone Bonderman is over-rated isn't true if you got him in the 21st round, etc.

Dyv [/QUOTE]What is so dang hard about throwing out 8 names for the fun of it. Do we alawys ahve to be so analitical about everything?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:26 am

Just to toss my two cents in (and we all know what two cents are worth) and as mentioned, it is only over/under valued depending on what round someone is taken:

Overvalued Hitter

Marcus Giles (yes, I am an Atlanta fan and he is a great "dirt" kind of player, but it takes a toll on his body)

Scott Podsednik (steals were at such a great premium in my league...One category player with just as much chance at 40 steals which is still not bad as 70 but oh that average)

Undervalued

Sean Green (If he hits close to 40 which is a possibility in my humble opinion, he will have a first round year)

Jose Vidro (Remember when people used to talk a LOT about Vidro...it could happen again...Number 2 overall second baseman maybe?)

And yes, I drafted both of the undervalued hitters!

Overvalued

Ben Sheets (yes he is the real deal, but his back and is not real happy with management...remember Randy Johnson when he was not happy in Seattle!)

Oliver Perez (I think he is the real deal, too, but a 24 year old pitcher playing for the Pirates is risky)

Both of these are great pitchers, but with enough quesitons about them not to be consensus second rounders.

Undervalued

Kelvim Escobar (Yes, I drafted him too and I know he is also not the picture of health, but I think he was just not shown enough love in most drafts I saw in Chicago)

Javier Vazquez (One I did not draft..surprise! If he keeps the HR's down... yes, I know he is in Arizona...could be a mini-Johnson in the desert).

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:35 am

Originally posted by MGBMARTY:

Totally agree with you KD on Bonderman He went in 6th rd in NY#5 At best a solid #3 SP ERA will be 4.65 Also will get hurt pitching at Chi Cle and Minn Not just because I have him on my roster but Halladay I picked up in 9th rd Dont get me wrong here but to me Crawford is OVER Valued Any leg injury for him or any other speed guy makes them useless Heres a good question Who is more valueable Crawford in 1st Rd or Pods in Rd 4 ?

My projections for Pods in Chi hitters park Hitters Division are 271 102 14 46 50 though that 50 could be more Crawford 295 100 16 52 58 Pods at 4 0r 5 is much more the value pick than Crawford in 1st Not too mention Sox lineup vs Rays line up or Favorable ball park I love the fantasy ratings that a lot of people use as their Bible Sometimes you have to go with your gut as opposed to so called experts that way you can only blame youeself. Side note to all readers of USA Todays Fantasy Baseball weekly publication. I could not stop laughing at their again so called experts ratings Some are just too funny Kind of wish it came out last week because about 15-20 Per cent of league managers would use their projections

Marty Marty,

If I knew I could've had Pods at the end of rd 4 I may not have taken Crawford in the 1st. I have them with very similar numbers this year except for crawford's BA being 25-30 pts higher.

Let's say I forgo Crawford there and take a pwr hitter instead - I think M Cabrera was my best option - I then get Pods in the 4th. Instead I take Carlos Lee in the 4th. So I could've had this - ( M Cabrera , S Podsednik ) instead I got this ( C Crawford , C Lee ), Not a big difference.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:37 am

Originally posted by fandango:

quote:Originally posted by MGBMARTY:

Seefer thats my point and of course the reason I took Pods at 4 I think he will lead league in stealing hands down I projected 50 but thats a consevative number Chicago is a hitters park Manager has given him carte blanche to steal at will Even if he hits 265 he should be better than Crawford in steals runs which why unless I am missing something His value at 4 or 5 is tenfold over Crawford in 1st Guess you took Pods too LOL

Marty SUPER sleeper of the year...very PODS like....

WILLY TAVERAS....may steal 50 with 300 average! almost guaranteed an OF spot in depleted Houston, Biggio demanded that he play 2nd and Burke is a bust...way more valuable at this point than a banged up Pierre! [/QUOTE]Hope so Fandango, I took him in the 22nd - now there's some real value if he hits your numbers.