What Does Beltran Go For In Auctions?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 5:00 am

Okay, you guys are WAY too quiet right now and I'm about to end that. I'm knee deep in rankings, ratings and dollar values for our first issue and I'm interested to get some feedback on dollar values for players in AL-only and NL-only Auction Leagues. Heck, even Mixed Auction Leagues.

Last year in our three NFBC Auction Leagues, three different players went for more than $40. In the New York AL Auction League, Alex Rodriguez went for $40 and Carlos Beltran went for $43. In the Las Vegas NL Auction League, Albert Pujols went for $41. In the Las Vegas AL Auction League, A-Rod went for $40 and Beltran went for $42.

With that in mind, and without showing your hand too much, how much do the following players go for in Rotisserie auctions this year?

Carlos Beltran in Houston?

Carlos Beltran in New York (Yankees or Mets)?

Alex Rodriguez?

Albert Pujols?

How about in Mixed Leagues, where the superstars demand even more attention? I can tell you that in our 15-team XFL league (hosted by Ron Shandler each year in the AFL), A-Rod went for $61!!! I protected Beltran at $42. Now, in a 15-team open auction, how much for:

Beltran?

A-Rod?

Pujols?

I'll tell you what we have them listed at in our first issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine and I can tell you that we don't have all three over $40. Any feedback is good feedback.

Auction King · Post by **Auction King** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:18 am

For AL or NL only leagues, I say Beltran hits $45 easily regardless of team, Pujols at $40 and Arod at $38, way too many good hitters in Al to go over 40 for Arod.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Dec 10, 2004 1:33 pm

Much of Beltran's is derived from steals. His fantastic-power laden playoff aside, he won't be challenging for the home run title.

Projecting steals is living on a slippery slope. Expecting 40+ bags from Beltran and paying accordingly is quite dangerous. I'd expect about 30 and price accordingly. Steals are worth a tad more in the AL and there is no reason to believe Beltran will not run as a Yankee (see ARod and Soriano's trends in and out of NY) so I would be willing to pay over $40 for him in the Bronx, or in the AL with a team that will run.

In the NL, while he will likely go for $40+, I would pass, figuring to get one of the SB specialists a bit cheaper.

In mixed leagues, the relative value of a steal goes down--the shallower the league (fewer teams), the less valuable a single steal is. Countering that is the notion that Greg describes--stars and scrubs rules in mixed as the replacement for your scrub is a higher quality than in a deep league so you can afford to trawl the waivers until you get a decent set of scrubs. Again Beltran will likely go for over $40, but I'd pass looking to get a steals specialist on the cheap. That said, I play with Greg in the XFL and he made the right choice keeping Beltran as the available player pool was quite sparse.

In NL only, Pujols is gold. I would likely go as high as $45 for him. I'm willing to pay for consistency and he has earned the label of being a stud year in and year out.

In AL only, this might be the year to get ARod as his perceived value will be down. In deep AL only leagues, the raw value of a SS and a 3B is the same, but some will incorrectly assume some of the $40 previously paid for him was due to his being a SS, therefore lowering their bid value. It won't take $40 to get him this season, but he is amongst the most likely to earn it. The cool thing about ARod is while he may not be the top valued AL player, he is always in the top-5. From year to year the other positions in the top-5 fluctuate, but ARod is ALWAYS, ALWAYS there. You pay for that consistency.

[ December 10, 2004, 07:39 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

85cards · Post by **85cards** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 10:22 am

in a 15 team mixed league, i think all 3 should go in the $40's. i'm a cardinals fan, so my projections for pujols are a little bit higher than most people.

my guess is pujols $49, beltran $47, arod $40-44 (depending on how many sb you think he'll get)

Cornbread Maxwell · Post by **Cornbread Maxwell** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:29 am

I can see Beltran and Pujols going for 40-45 and being worth it, but not for Arod. Since Arod is now only 3B eligible that drops him significantly. I dont agree that the raw value of SS and 3B are the same - not by a longshot. I see 3B as being one of the deepest poisitions this yr, and SS, while deeper than it has been in previous yrs, still only runs 6-8 deep worth taking a mid rd or earlier pick on.

Regardless, given Arod's home/away splits prior to 2004, I dont think his power numbers will ever return to where they were. His SBs may stay temporarily- which is the only reason he stays in the top 10. Someone will value Arod as a top 3 player again this yr and overpay for him in your auction - dont be that guy. Because of the loss of SS eligibility, the depth at 3B this yr, his power number drop, and his name recognition he will be overvalued.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:07 pm

Since Arod is now only 3B eligible that drops him significantly. I dont agree that the raw value of SS and 3B are the same - not by a longshot. I see 3B as being one of the deepest poisitions this yr, and SS, while deeper than it has been in previous yrs, still only runs 6-8 deep worth taking a mid rd or earlier pick on.

Careful, you're mixing apples and oranges here...

The original question asked about Beltran in a deep auction and that's where 3B and SS are of equal value for the same production. The dynamics of a 15-team mixed draft are different.

In a 15-team mixed league, THERE WILL be a positional effect on value. A SS with the exact same stat line as a 3B will be worth about $4 MORE.

In a deep 12-team AL only auction or 13-team NL only auction, a SS and a 3B with the same stat line will be worth the SAME dollar value.

Value is awarded to useful stats only. Useful stats are over and above what you can get for free--aka a replacement level player (the top UNDRAFTED player).

In 15-team mixed leagues, there is a significant difference in the replacement level 3B and the replacement level SS so when the adjustment for replacement is made, the SS has more useful stat remaining, hence a higher value for the same raw stat line.

In deep leagues like the AL and NL only NFBC auctions, the replacement level 3B and SS are virtually the same, so the adjustment for useful stats is the same, so the value is the same.

Strength of pool (different than replacement level, this refers to the overall talent at the position) may alter a player's draft position, but will not alter their dollar value in a deep auction

[ January 04, 2005, 06:09 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Jan 05, 2005 1:40 pm

I'm no expert but from the data I've seen when you hit 40+ on bids for players your chances of value from those players takes a dive. You may get 42 or 43 dollers worth out of that player. chances are though you won't. I learned that last year. I bid $42 for beltran. I think he returned $35 on the season. Still a good season for him though.