I know its a bit too early to make any accurate assumptions on strategies, but I'm getting pretty tired of hearing about Jolbert Cabrera and rules technicalities...I'd much rather talk baseball.
That said, I was curious regarding the much talked about strategy of loading up on hitting in the early rounds, and not getting pitchers until later in the draft. Many participants lauded this strategy, claiming it was the best way to get to the money. Even after the season started and Prior went down with his injury, there was talk about how pitchers were too risky.
This strategy isn't an old one, as it has been around the FB world for a while. Yet this year, I noticed an increase in people buying in to it. In my draft, and in others, I noticed pitchers were slipping at an alarming rate. And mediocre middle infielders were being taken in the 4th and 5th rounds, while star pitchers capable of winning 16-18 were dropping into the middle rounds.
So today, I took a look at the top 10 to see how these guys with early success built their pitching staffs. Not surprisingly, only one out of these 10 (Howdogs) employed the big hitter/small pitcher strategy. On the rest of the teams, you have guys like Randy Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Kerry Wood, and Curt Schilling sprinkled in on every team.
Anyways, I'm really not trying to knock this strategy, as I know it has been successful for many. Just wanna get some baseball talk going.
[ April 16, 2004, 09:24 AM: Message edited by: Rey ]
Load up on batting strategy
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Walla Walla
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Load up on batting strategy
I'd say its way too early to say what will work.
You could make a point for drafting the hitters first or pitchers first. Depends on who you drafted. But the truth is the numbers now mean nothing. It's a well known fact that its a long haul. The hot player today could be out the rest of the season tomorrow. August would be a good time for this talk.
You could make a point for drafting the hitters first or pitchers first. Depends on who you drafted. But the truth is the numbers now mean nothing. It's a well known fact that its a long haul. The hot player today could be out the rest of the season tomorrow. August would be a good time for this talk.
Load up on batting strategy
Originally posted by Walla Walla:
I'd say its way too early to say what will work.
You could make a point for drafting the hitters first or pitchers first. Depends on who you drafted. But the truth is the numbers now mean nothing. It's a well known fact that its a long haul. The hot player today could be out the rest of the season tomorrow. August would be a good time for this talk. I'd respectfully disagree. Of course the hot player now could be out the rest of the season tomorrow. On the flip side, the cold player can stay cold and hold your team back all year. Its a parallel argument. That being said, whats the difference between 30 RBI's in April and 30 in August? You can say stats don't matter now, but I would disagree. They matter the same now that they do come August.
Nobody should be claiming victory this early. And nobody should be giving up. As you say, its a long haul. But we can't discuss the early results? Don't they have at least some validity?You mean to tell me that at the end of April, the person in 1st place doesn't have a decided advantage over the person in last?
I'd say its way too early to say what will work.
You could make a point for drafting the hitters first or pitchers first. Depends on who you drafted. But the truth is the numbers now mean nothing. It's a well known fact that its a long haul. The hot player today could be out the rest of the season tomorrow. August would be a good time for this talk. I'd respectfully disagree. Of course the hot player now could be out the rest of the season tomorrow. On the flip side, the cold player can stay cold and hold your team back all year. Its a parallel argument. That being said, whats the difference between 30 RBI's in April and 30 in August? You can say stats don't matter now, but I would disagree. They matter the same now that they do come August.
Nobody should be claiming victory this early. And nobody should be giving up. As you say, its a long haul. But we can't discuss the early results? Don't they have at least some validity?You mean to tell me that at the end of April, the person in 1st place doesn't have a decided advantage over the person in last?
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Walla Walla
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Load up on batting strategy
April stats don't count? Well they count but I wouldn't bet the ranch on those numbers. I'm second at the moment in the AL auction league. Yet some of the teams I'm worried about are way back. I know this is just a small bump on a long and bumpy road.
Load up on batting strategy
I'm not sure if any one-diminsional strategy can be succussful in a baseball season against reasonable opponents where trading is prohibited and the FA wire is so thin.
A one-diminsional strategy that could work in the short term is to draft healthy players. I wonder how many teams have as few as just one player on the DL.
A one-diminsional strategy that could work in the short term is to draft healthy players. I wonder how many teams have as few as just one player on the DL.
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Fantasy Jungle
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Load up on batting strategy
I agree with both of you guys. It is way too early in the season to really be able to hone in on any sort of trends or stats, and Im sure that there are teams in the 100s right now, that will be in the top 20 before too long, and lots of teams in the top 20 that will trade places with them. Just 1 or 2 bad starts can kill your ERA and WHIP.
But getting back to Rey's initial question and that was talking about draft strategies with hitters-pitchers, etc...I think in the last few years, pitching has changed. There was one point in time when The Unit, Pedro, Maddux, and even Clemens were locks to put up great numbers. Now, I think there wasn't a surefire bet at P going into this year other than Prior, of course before he got hurt. If you look at it, Pedro is throwing 89-90 most of the time now, so his stuff is obviously not what it once was. The Unit is coming off of a srugery and his velocity had been down. Schilling is old and switching leagues, although he looks pretty good.
You then go to the next set of pitchers who are the next best and most of them are younger guys who have the potential to be the next core of stars. Wood, Halladay, Vazquez, Hudson, Zito, Oswalt, Mulder, Beckett, etc. Mussina and Kevin Brown arent young but I think fall into this group as well.
At that point, you might look at it and say all of these pitchers are equal in your ratings, but you also know that you could get them somewhere between 3-6. In the end, Pedro and Unit could end up leading the league in ERA so who knows, but I think that Josh Beckett has the best stuff in baseball. From a stats persepective, he had like 14 career wins and several injuries so you couldnt take him early, but from a point of physical skills, the guy has a consistent fast ball that hits 96-98 and a kneebuckling curve. The difference this year is he has added a changeup which is huge with his fastball being so dominant. Also, to go into Yankee Stadium and throw 2 games like he did in the World Series had to be an indicator of what he could do. So a guy like him, or a guy like Javy Vazquez who has phenomenal stuff and is going to a great hitting team, I think lots of teams probably had this group of guys rated high on their boards, but knew they wouldnt have to start drafting them until round 3 and later, hence the taking of hitters first. I cant speak for any other team, but that was our thought going in.
But getting back to Rey's initial question and that was talking about draft strategies with hitters-pitchers, etc...I think in the last few years, pitching has changed. There was one point in time when The Unit, Pedro, Maddux, and even Clemens were locks to put up great numbers. Now, I think there wasn't a surefire bet at P going into this year other than Prior, of course before he got hurt. If you look at it, Pedro is throwing 89-90 most of the time now, so his stuff is obviously not what it once was. The Unit is coming off of a srugery and his velocity had been down. Schilling is old and switching leagues, although he looks pretty good.
You then go to the next set of pitchers who are the next best and most of them are younger guys who have the potential to be the next core of stars. Wood, Halladay, Vazquez, Hudson, Zito, Oswalt, Mulder, Beckett, etc. Mussina and Kevin Brown arent young but I think fall into this group as well.
At that point, you might look at it and say all of these pitchers are equal in your ratings, but you also know that you could get them somewhere between 3-6. In the end, Pedro and Unit could end up leading the league in ERA so who knows, but I think that Josh Beckett has the best stuff in baseball. From a stats persepective, he had like 14 career wins and several injuries so you couldnt take him early, but from a point of physical skills, the guy has a consistent fast ball that hits 96-98 and a kneebuckling curve. The difference this year is he has added a changeup which is huge with his fastball being so dominant. Also, to go into Yankee Stadium and throw 2 games like he did in the World Series had to be an indicator of what he could do. So a guy like him, or a guy like Javy Vazquez who has phenomenal stuff and is going to a great hitting team, I think lots of teams probably had this group of guys rated high on their boards, but knew they wouldnt have to start drafting them until round 3 and later, hence the taking of hitters first. I cant speak for any other team, but that was our thought going in.
Load up on batting strategy
For the Fantasy Jungle: You mention 10 different pitchers who you feel are 3rd to 6th rounders. Looking at the average draft results for all 13 leagues, it looks like these guys went a bit faster than you suggested. Wood, Halladay and Vasquez averaged in the 2nd round - along with RJ. Hudson, Moose and Oswalt were 4th rounders - along with Schmidt. Becket and Zito were 5th rounders. Brown and Mulder were 6th rounders - along with Santana & Webb.
Our team looked for a balanced lineup. We wanted to have roughly 7 hitters, 2SPs and 1 closer after 10 rounds. We wanted a top 4 SP (we got Wood & Miller) and a top closer (we got Rivera). The way our draft progressed we ended with a 7/2/1 mix although it could have gone 6/3/1 if the draft dynamics were different. In 5+ months, we will know how we did.
Our team looked for a balanced lineup. We wanted to have roughly 7 hitters, 2SPs and 1 closer after 10 rounds. We wanted a top 4 SP (we got Wood & Miller) and a top closer (we got Rivera). The way our draft progressed we ended with a 7/2/1 mix although it could have gone 6/3/1 if the draft dynamics were different. In 5+ months, we will know how we did.
Load up on batting strategy
For my .02 - the 'play' for loading up on hitters is basically this:
I can find Dontrelle Willis easier than I can find Chipper Jones from the FA list.
That's it.
Oh, and if I screw up and don't find Dontrelle Willis? Well, then I can load up with Luis Ayala and Tom Martin and gain ground in WHIP/ERA instead.
NOTHING is perfect - but I trust myself to spot pitchers moreso than I do to uncover hitters so we leaned that way.
I would never foresake pitching... we got Contreras, Livan Hernandez, Jeff Weaver and Kris Benson for our top 4 SP. Nothing spectacular, but solid enough starters. Put a top 10 SP on the top of that order and we'd be loaded, but we spent more on offense (first 6 picks and 10 of the first 14 picks).
We have those 4 SP + 3 closers (Nathan, Mantei, Baez) so there's really only 2 pitching spots to toy with and we can go with SP or MR depending on needs.
I like flexibility and I like the idea that you have a patch in pitching and a patch in hitting so that when you uncover a gem you can actually use them in your lineup! Nothing worse (in my mind) than filling out your 1b and corner and DH spots then find someone in your league drops Edgar Martinez...
It was funny in our league, pitching went so hot and heavy early it really forced our hand - Renteria fell to us at #27 pick because so many SP poured off the board. We intended to go 75/25 offense lean anyway and the league helped us pretty much get what we wanted.
Long season to go - Walla makes a great point here. I haven't looked yet, but I'm guessing anyone 'brilliant' enough to draft Victor Zambrano and Richard Hidalgo and avoid Mussina and Nomar is looking good. Another 60 days goes by and we'll see how that's still working
Dyv
I can find Dontrelle Willis easier than I can find Chipper Jones from the FA list.
That's it.
Oh, and if I screw up and don't find Dontrelle Willis? Well, then I can load up with Luis Ayala and Tom Martin and gain ground in WHIP/ERA instead.
NOTHING is perfect - but I trust myself to spot pitchers moreso than I do to uncover hitters so we leaned that way.
I would never foresake pitching... we got Contreras, Livan Hernandez, Jeff Weaver and Kris Benson for our top 4 SP. Nothing spectacular, but solid enough starters. Put a top 10 SP on the top of that order and we'd be loaded, but we spent more on offense (first 6 picks and 10 of the first 14 picks).
We have those 4 SP + 3 closers (Nathan, Mantei, Baez) so there's really only 2 pitching spots to toy with and we can go with SP or MR depending on needs.
I like flexibility and I like the idea that you have a patch in pitching and a patch in hitting so that when you uncover a gem you can actually use them in your lineup! Nothing worse (in my mind) than filling out your 1b and corner and DH spots then find someone in your league drops Edgar Martinez...
It was funny in our league, pitching went so hot and heavy early it really forced our hand - Renteria fell to us at #27 pick because so many SP poured off the board. We intended to go 75/25 offense lean anyway and the league helped us pretty much get what we wanted.
Long season to go - Walla makes a great point here. I haven't looked yet, but I'm guessing anyone 'brilliant' enough to draft Victor Zambrano and Richard Hidalgo and avoid Mussina and Nomar is looking good. Another 60 days goes by and we'll see how that's still working
Dyv
Just Some Guy
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Return of the Aces
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Load up on batting strategy
I had the 8th pick and went with pitching early, 3 of the first 4 rounds:
Prior, Chavez, Mussina, Wagner.
At this point of the season, with Prior on the DL, Mussina struggling and Wagner not getting many save opportunites, it is my offense that is carrying my team.
Prior, Chavez, Mussina, Wagner.
At this point of the season, with Prior on the DL, Mussina struggling and Wagner not getting many save opportunites, it is my offense that is carrying my team.