I really like Alex Gordon this year. My guess is this guy could be a 2nd round pick in 2009, and to get him in the 9th round is Crazy value.
Being on the Royals obviously hurts his numbers, but without a doubt helps the drafter getting a good spot to pick him in.
What are your projections for Gordon? Many things to take into consideration. This guy admittedly was "pressing" last year. First 2 months were a wash and turned it around. This guy had David Wright written all over him and then he basically bombed (relatively speaking) last year.
Is .290-30-90-20 possible?
With those numbers, he's early 2nd round next year and could be the guy that puts you over the top in your league IMO.
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Crazy Like a Fox
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"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
Regarding Troy Tulowitzki.
Does Troy's expected batting order slot at #2 affect his value this year positively or negatively.
The obvious effect is more runs, less rbi's, but it's hard for me to distinguish what's better, Troy hitting #6 or Troy hitting #2.
I would think, getting more rbi's out of shortstop position would be more beneficial than more runs. Maybe I'm thinking too hard on this one.
All and all, would you say Troy should be drafted with the expectation of an even better year in 2008? I'd rather have him bat second and have a handful more plate appearances. The same goes for Hunter Pence in Houston. Overall, I wouldn't put too much thought into his spot in the order - the tradeoff will pretty much even out. I expect modest improvement this year - I'd like to see his road stats improve, but a modest power improvement is probably likely, but not in stolen bases.
Regarding Troy Tulowitzki.
Does Troy's expected batting order slot at #2 affect his value this year positively or negatively.
The obvious effect is more runs, less rbi's, but it's hard for me to distinguish what's better, Troy hitting #6 or Troy hitting #2.
I would think, getting more rbi's out of shortstop position would be more beneficial than more runs. Maybe I'm thinking too hard on this one.
All and all, would you say Troy should be drafted with the expectation of an even better year in 2008? I'd rather have him bat second and have a handful more plate appearances. The same goes for Hunter Pence in Houston. Overall, I wouldn't put too much thought into his spot in the order - the tradeoff will pretty much even out. I expect modest improvement this year - I'd like to see his road stats improve, but a modest power improvement is probably likely, but not in stolen bases.
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Chest Rockwell
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Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
I really like Alex Gordon this year. My guess is this guy could be a 2nd round pick in 2009, and to get him in the 9th round is Crazy value.
Being on the Royals obviously hurts his numbers, but without a doubt helps the drafter getting a good spot to pick him in.
What are your projections for Gordon? Many things to take into consideration. This guy admittedly was "pressing" last year. First 2 months were a wash and turned it around. This guy had David Wright written all over him and then he basically bombed (relatively speaking) last year.
Is .290-30-90-20 possible?
With those numbers, he's early 2nd round next year and could be the guy that puts you over the top in your league IMO. I will piggy back on Crazy's question a bit- b/c I too like Gordon a lot but I would like him just as much as Crazy if I could just find a stretch of time where he killed it or even performed very well. Love the talent, love the situation, but I sure would feel better about him if he just had a great couple of months or showed "substantial improvement" in the 2nd half.
I really like Alex Gordon this year. My guess is this guy could be a 2nd round pick in 2009, and to get him in the 9th round is Crazy value.
Being on the Royals obviously hurts his numbers, but without a doubt helps the drafter getting a good spot to pick him in.
What are your projections for Gordon? Many things to take into consideration. This guy admittedly was "pressing" last year. First 2 months were a wash and turned it around. This guy had David Wright written all over him and then he basically bombed (relatively speaking) last year.
Is .290-30-90-20 possible?
With those numbers, he's early 2nd round next year and could be the guy that puts you over the top in your league IMO. I will piggy back on Crazy's question a bit- b/c I too like Gordon a lot but I would like him just as much as Crazy if I could just find a stretch of time where he killed it or even performed very well. Love the talent, love the situation, but I sure would feel better about him if he just had a great couple of months or showed "substantial improvement" in the 2nd half.
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Crazy Like a Fox
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Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?
Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.
What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?
I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive? My projection on Upton:
.285-21-77-93 (runs) - 34 SB. I think that's about the middle of his range. Yes, the BABIP was .399 last year, but then again, his speed helps him out a lot in getting some of those hits. I do think his average takes a little dip, but on the bright side, all of his strikeouts at least come accompanied by a pretty good walk rate. The other good news is that he comes into this season with his position finally settled - I think that only bodes well. He could outperform my projection. [/QUOTE]If your projections are correct, Kinsler in round 4 might be better value as I have .275-25-90-110 runs - 25 stolen bases. Although he has gotten injured 2 years in a row which I think is the main reason he lasts into the 4th.
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?
Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.
What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?
I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive? My projection on Upton:
.285-21-77-93 (runs) - 34 SB. I think that's about the middle of his range. Yes, the BABIP was .399 last year, but then again, his speed helps him out a lot in getting some of those hits. I do think his average takes a little dip, but on the bright side, all of his strikeouts at least come accompanied by a pretty good walk rate. The other good news is that he comes into this season with his position finally settled - I think that only bodes well. He could outperform my projection. [/QUOTE]If your projections are correct, Kinsler in round 4 might be better value as I have .275-25-90-110 runs - 25 stolen bases. Although he has gotten injured 2 years in a row which I think is the main reason he lasts into the 4th.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
By the way, thanks for helping us out Jeff.
It seems as though, after Johan and Peavy, the next best pitchers have some question marks.
Bedard: Even with all the potential he showed last year, isn't it still risky drafting him in the 3rd or 4th round considering a couple reasons: Will his output warrant his draft slot? Is it smart to expect a full season without injury from him at this point?
Sabathia: Career highs in every category, the one that jumps out is innings pitched. Sure to regress.
Hamels: Too much injury potential?
Felix Hernandez: Looks like he can breakout, but haven't we been saying that for a couple years now?
What's amazing with this year's draft, is there are so many question marks from pitchers in the early rounds, I actually feel round 8 and later in drafts there is much more chance for improvement on last year's numbers as opposed to round 3-6 pitchers.
Based on this philosophy, what kind of strategy would be best to employ using later round pitchers without sacrificing pitching too much? I completely agree with you - there's a helluva lot of risk investing a third or fourth round pick on a starter. And here's the kicker - *every* starter has some degree of injury risk that makes me somewhat uncomfortable gambling on one of those guys so early. I think that Mark Prior is the perfect example of this - remember, he had the "perfect" mechanics that would protect him from breaking down. But he still couldn't get out of the way of Marcus Giles, or the next year a line drive back up the middle, and even despite those injuries being flukes, he still broke down.
So yeah, you can't ignore starting pitching, but I think that there's plenty of value later on, and you're more likely to get a better return on those guys then. Still target high-strikeout guys first, and then I tend to look for NL guys over AL guys, older guys over younger guys. I'm not of the belief that there's a "peak age" for pitchers as there is for hitters, but at the same time, I'm less wary of a starter breaking down once he hits his upper 20's-early 30's.
By the way, thanks for helping us out Jeff.
It seems as though, after Johan and Peavy, the next best pitchers have some question marks.
Bedard: Even with all the potential he showed last year, isn't it still risky drafting him in the 3rd or 4th round considering a couple reasons: Will his output warrant his draft slot? Is it smart to expect a full season without injury from him at this point?
Sabathia: Career highs in every category, the one that jumps out is innings pitched. Sure to regress.
Hamels: Too much injury potential?
Felix Hernandez: Looks like he can breakout, but haven't we been saying that for a couple years now?
What's amazing with this year's draft, is there are so many question marks from pitchers in the early rounds, I actually feel round 8 and later in drafts there is much more chance for improvement on last year's numbers as opposed to round 3-6 pitchers.
Based on this philosophy, what kind of strategy would be best to employ using later round pitchers without sacrificing pitching too much? I completely agree with you - there's a helluva lot of risk investing a third or fourth round pick on a starter. And here's the kicker - *every* starter has some degree of injury risk that makes me somewhat uncomfortable gambling on one of those guys so early. I think that Mark Prior is the perfect example of this - remember, he had the "perfect" mechanics that would protect him from breaking down. But he still couldn't get out of the way of Marcus Giles, or the next year a line drive back up the middle, and even despite those injuries being flukes, he still broke down.
So yeah, you can't ignore starting pitching, but I think that there's plenty of value later on, and you're more likely to get a better return on those guys then. Still target high-strikeout guys first, and then I tend to look for NL guys over AL guys, older guys over younger guys. I'm not of the belief that there's a "peak age" for pitchers as there is for hitters, but at the same time, I'm less wary of a starter breaking down once he hits his upper 20's-early 30's.
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Jeff,
Matt Cain had a wickedly good second half last year. I project him to be taken in the 9th/10th round in NFBC drafts in March. Considering his youth/talent mix, he seems like good value to me there. Your thoughts?
Another guy I can see having a good year and a good adp is Edwin Encarnacion. If he gets full-time AB’s (like I project) in that hitter-friendly ballpark, would you be surprised to see a 25/12 season from him?
Where do you have Pudge ranked on the catcher list?
Thanks! Yeah, Cain, if you can get him in the 9th or 10th, is good value. I only worry a little about him not being out of the injury-risk area, but if he can survive how Alou used him in 2006, then I suppose he's in pretty decent shape. I currently have him at #127 overall.
*Love* Encarnacion, and hope that the Reds finally just leave him alone and let him play every day. He got himself into trouble by not running out that pop-up early in April, and it took until the second half before he really broke out. What I like is that his defense also improved over the second half, so he's less likely to get yanked around this year.
Pudge - #189 overall, behind Johjima, but right there with Soto and a few others among catchers.
Jeff,
Matt Cain had a wickedly good second half last year. I project him to be taken in the 9th/10th round in NFBC drafts in March. Considering his youth/talent mix, he seems like good value to me there. Your thoughts?
Another guy I can see having a good year and a good adp is Edwin Encarnacion. If he gets full-time AB’s (like I project) in that hitter-friendly ballpark, would you be surprised to see a 25/12 season from him?
Where do you have Pudge ranked on the catcher list?
Thanks! Yeah, Cain, if you can get him in the 9th or 10th, is good value. I only worry a little about him not being out of the injury-risk area, but if he can survive how Alou used him in 2006, then I suppose he's in pretty decent shape. I currently have him at #127 overall.
*Love* Encarnacion, and hope that the Reds finally just leave him alone and let him play every day. He got himself into trouble by not running out that pop-up early in April, and it took until the second half before he really broke out. What I like is that his defense also improved over the second half, so he's less likely to get yanked around this year.
Pudge - #189 overall, behind Johjima, but right there with Soto and a few others among catchers.
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Hard Heads:
Which of these top rated rookies do you see makes the biggest fantasy impact this season?
Bruce, Longoria, Votto, Buchholz, Soto or Adam Jones? I hope I'm wrong (I'm a Reds fan), but I think that Bruce starts the year in Louisville. I'd say Longoria will have more of a chance than him initially, as will Votto. Soto has already proven himself to Piniella with his September - he'll play all year.
Overall, I'd rank them as:
Votto, Longoria, Buchholz (but if Schilling is definitely out, put him above), Bruce, Jones, Soto (as much as I like him, check out his BABIP - he's going to decline some).
Which of these top rated rookies do you see makes the biggest fantasy impact this season?
Bruce, Longoria, Votto, Buchholz, Soto or Adam Jones? I hope I'm wrong (I'm a Reds fan), but I think that Bruce starts the year in Louisville. I'd say Longoria will have more of a chance than him initially, as will Votto. Soto has already proven himself to Piniella with his September - he'll play all year.
Overall, I'd rank them as:
Votto, Longoria, Buchholz (but if Schilling is definitely out, put him above), Bruce, Jones, Soto (as much as I like him, check out his BABIP - he's going to decline some).
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Jeff, aside from the day-to-day player notes and columns, what is the best feature of rotowire that you can't get anywhere else or that far surpasses everywhere else?
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Trash Man:
You are sitting at pick 12. Braun, Fielder, and Howard are all available. Who do you like and why?
Lidge, Corpas, and Street have all been going around pick 120. Of these, who has the best chance of putting up the best stats in your opinion? Braun, because he runs more, and because he's a safer bet with batting average. I'd go Braun, Fielder then Howard.
I still go with Street. I understand that he'll lose some save opportunities, but I think that the decline of the A's is somewhat overblown - they still have some pretty useful players on that team, and there will still be some saves to be had there. Lidge and Corpas are pretty much bundled at the same value for me - Lidge is a little riskier, but has a higher ceiling in terms of strikeouts.
You are sitting at pick 12. Braun, Fielder, and Howard are all available. Who do you like and why?
Lidge, Corpas, and Street have all been going around pick 120. Of these, who has the best chance of putting up the best stats in your opinion? Braun, because he runs more, and because he's a safer bet with batting average. I'd go Braun, Fielder then Howard.
I still go with Street. I understand that he'll lose some save opportunities, but I think that the decline of the A's is somewhat overblown - they still have some pretty useful players on that team, and there will still be some saves to be had there. Lidge and Corpas are pretty much bundled at the same value for me - Lidge is a little riskier, but has a higher ceiling in terms of strikeouts.
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
Jeff,
As an industry guy I would think joining the nfbc is a no win situation for you? If you win you were expected to do so right? If you get smoked and finish dead last like Matt Berry did- that cannot be real good for business I would think?
Tough situation to be in, but I am glad you joined and look forward to meeting you in Vegas. They still pay out cash money, right? There's plenty to win, even with a weakened dollar!
And hey, I understand that there are a lot of great players out there, and for that matter, plenty that are probably better than I am. But I can play this game a little - I'm eager to give it a try.
And besides, if I do well, it'll only help us in terms of promotional value. And trust me, if I do well, I will be talking up how good each and every one of you are...
Jeff,
As an industry guy I would think joining the nfbc is a no win situation for you? If you win you were expected to do so right? If you get smoked and finish dead last like Matt Berry did- that cannot be real good for business I would think?
Tough situation to be in, but I am glad you joined and look forward to meeting you in Vegas. They still pay out cash money, right? There's plenty to win, even with a weakened dollar!
And hey, I understand that there are a lot of great players out there, and for that matter, plenty that are probably better than I am. But I can play this game a little - I'm eager to give it a try.
And besides, if I do well, it'll only help us in terms of promotional value. And trust me, if I do well, I will be talking up how good each and every one of you are...
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
Give me one hitter and one pitcher in your opinion will WAY outproduce their draft slot? Jeremy Hermida and Billy Butler; Scott Baker.
Give me one hitter and one pitcher in your opinion will WAY outproduce their draft slot? Jeremy Hermida and Billy Butler; Scott Baker.
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Crazy Like a Fox
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Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Jeff,
Matt Cain had a wickedly good second half last year. I project him to be taken in the 9th/10th round in NFBC drafts in March. Considering his youth/talent mix, he seems like good value to me there. Your thoughts?
Another guy I can see having a good year and a good adp is Edwin Encarnacion. If he gets full-time AB’s (like I project) in that hitter-friendly ballpark, would you be surprised to see a 25/12 season from him?
Where do you have Pudge ranked on the catcher list?
Thanks! Yeah, Cain, if you can get him in the 9th or 10th, is good value. I only worry a little about him not being out of the injury-risk area, but if he can survive how Alou used him in 2006, then I suppose he's in pretty decent shape. I currently have him at #127 overall.
*Love* Encarnacion, and hope that the Reds finally just leave him alone and let him play every day. He got himself into trouble by not running out that pop-up early in April, and it took until the second half before he really broke out. What I like is that his defense also improved over the second half, so he's less likely to get yanked around this year.
Pudge - #189 overall, behind Johjima, but right there with Soto and a few others among catchers. [/QUOTE]Maybe not my place, but what's not talked about enough is the absolutely dreadful offense the Giants possess. How many wins can you expect. Last year he was 7-16. Let's say he's .500 this year, 12-12. If you take out his 4-1 August, he was 3-15 on the year. His peripherals would have to be pretty mindblowing to make up for the lack of wins. Yes, Cain can pitch, but I see McGowan having similar stats with atleast a few more wins, and you can get him later. Just my thought.
[ February 07, 2008, 01:50 PM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Jeff,
Matt Cain had a wickedly good second half last year. I project him to be taken in the 9th/10th round in NFBC drafts in March. Considering his youth/talent mix, he seems like good value to me there. Your thoughts?
Another guy I can see having a good year and a good adp is Edwin Encarnacion. If he gets full-time AB’s (like I project) in that hitter-friendly ballpark, would you be surprised to see a 25/12 season from him?
Where do you have Pudge ranked on the catcher list?
Thanks! Yeah, Cain, if you can get him in the 9th or 10th, is good value. I only worry a little about him not being out of the injury-risk area, but if he can survive how Alou used him in 2006, then I suppose he's in pretty decent shape. I currently have him at #127 overall.
*Love* Encarnacion, and hope that the Reds finally just leave him alone and let him play every day. He got himself into trouble by not running out that pop-up early in April, and it took until the second half before he really broke out. What I like is that his defense also improved over the second half, so he's less likely to get yanked around this year.
Pudge - #189 overall, behind Johjima, but right there with Soto and a few others among catchers. [/QUOTE]Maybe not my place, but what's not talked about enough is the absolutely dreadful offense the Giants possess. How many wins can you expect. Last year he was 7-16. Let's say he's .500 this year, 12-12. If you take out his 4-1 August, he was 3-15 on the year. His peripherals would have to be pretty mindblowing to make up for the lack of wins. Yes, Cain can pitch, but I see McGowan having similar stats with atleast a few more wins, and you can get him later. Just my thought.
[ February 07, 2008, 01:50 PM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Quahogs:
Jeff,
as a fantasy writer AND player name a couple writers/analysts/columnists/beat reporters in the industry who YOU view as usually spot on when evaluating/discussing a player. At a risk of omission here, because there are a lot of writers that I respect that I just don't have time to read:
Ron Shandler
Jason Grey
Joe Sheehan
Keith Law
Jeff,
as a fantasy writer AND player name a couple writers/analysts/columnists/beat reporters in the industry who YOU view as usually spot on when evaluating/discussing a player. At a risk of omission here, because there are a lot of writers that I respect that I just don't have time to read:
Ron Shandler
Jason Grey
Joe Sheehan
Keith Law
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Crazy Like a Fox
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Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
Give me one hitter and one pitcher in your opinion will WAY outproduce their draft slot? Jeremy Hermida and Billy Butler; Scott Baker. [/QUOTE]Very good picks. Thanks.
Another Minnesota pitcher I like even more is Kevin Slowey. Could have the best control the major leagues has seen in years. Loving that September he had.
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
Give me one hitter and one pitcher in your opinion will WAY outproduce their draft slot? Jeremy Hermida and Billy Butler; Scott Baker. [/QUOTE]Very good picks. Thanks.
Another Minnesota pitcher I like even more is Kevin Slowey. Could have the best control the major leagues has seen in years. Loving that September he had.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
I really like Alex Gordon this year. My guess is this guy could be a 2nd round pick in 2009, and to get him in the 9th round is Crazy value.
Being on the Royals obviously hurts his numbers, but without a doubt helps the drafter getting a good spot to pick him in.
What are your projections for Gordon? Many things to take into consideration. This guy admittedly was "pressing" last year. First 2 months were a wash and turned it around. This guy had David Wright written all over him and then he basically bombed (relatively speaking) last year.
Is .290-30-90-20 possible?
With those numbers, he's early 2nd round next year and could be the guy that puts you over the top in your league IMO. Yeah, he certainly could do that - I think that's the top-end of his range for 2008. I've got him at:
.271-21-79-17
This is one case where I think that confidence is really an issue. He got off to such a horrific start (and as documented, faced a slew of tough opposing pitchers), that it was pretty hard for him to dig himself out of that hole. I have him right now at #115, but might move him up a few slots with my next update.
I really like Alex Gordon this year. My guess is this guy could be a 2nd round pick in 2009, and to get him in the 9th round is Crazy value.
Being on the Royals obviously hurts his numbers, but without a doubt helps the drafter getting a good spot to pick him in.
What are your projections for Gordon? Many things to take into consideration. This guy admittedly was "pressing" last year. First 2 months were a wash and turned it around. This guy had David Wright written all over him and then he basically bombed (relatively speaking) last year.
Is .290-30-90-20 possible?
With those numbers, he's early 2nd round next year and could be the guy that puts you over the top in your league IMO. Yeah, he certainly could do that - I think that's the top-end of his range for 2008. I've got him at:
.271-21-79-17
This is one case where I think that confidence is really an issue. He got off to such a horrific start (and as documented, faced a slew of tough opposing pitchers), that it was pretty hard for him to dig himself out of that hole. I have him right now at #115, but might move him up a few slots with my next update.
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?
Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.
What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?
I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive? My projection on Upton:
.285-21-77-93 (runs) - 34 SB. I think that's about the middle of his range. Yes, the BABIP was .399 last year, but then again, his speed helps him out a lot in getting some of those hits. I do think his average takes a little dip, but on the bright side, all of his strikeouts at least come accompanied by a pretty good walk rate. The other good news is that he comes into this season with his position finally settled - I think that only bodes well. He could outperform my projection. [/QUOTE]If your projections are correct, Kinsler in round 4 might be better value as I have .275-25-90-110 runs - 25 stolen bases. Although he has gotten injured 2 years in a row which I think is the main reason he lasts into the 4th. [/QUOTE]I might be wrong, but I don't think you'll have to use a 4th-rounder on Kinsler. His ADP on Mockdraftcentral is #70 right now. The one concern at all that I have about him is his BA, but yeah, I think you're on target about him being a good value.
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?
Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.
What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?
I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive? My projection on Upton:
.285-21-77-93 (runs) - 34 SB. I think that's about the middle of his range. Yes, the BABIP was .399 last year, but then again, his speed helps him out a lot in getting some of those hits. I do think his average takes a little dip, but on the bright side, all of his strikeouts at least come accompanied by a pretty good walk rate. The other good news is that he comes into this season with his position finally settled - I think that only bodes well. He could outperform my projection. [/QUOTE]If your projections are correct, Kinsler in round 4 might be better value as I have .275-25-90-110 runs - 25 stolen bases. Although he has gotten injured 2 years in a row which I think is the main reason he lasts into the 4th. [/QUOTE]I might be wrong, but I don't think you'll have to use a 4th-rounder on Kinsler. His ADP on Mockdraftcentral is #70 right now. The one concern at all that I have about him is his BA, but yeah, I think you're on target about him being a good value.
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Hard Heads
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What do you think the Yankees do with Joba, starter or setup guy?
Hard Heads
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Tom Kessenich
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I'll let Jeff answer as many more questions as he can before he has to take off but I wanted to thank him again for joining us today. Everyone who signs up for our event will receive a free copy of the RotoWire baseball magazine featuring Jeff's great work (among many others) and those of you drafting in Vegas will get an opportunity to meet him in person and maybe even compete against him in your league.
Thanks again Jeff and have fun in Vegas.
Thanks again Jeff and have fun in Vegas.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
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Crazy Like a Fox
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Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?
Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.
What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?
I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive? My projection on Upton:
.285-21-77-93 (runs) - 34 SB. I think that's about the middle of his range. Yes, the BABIP was .399 last year, but then again, his speed helps him out a lot in getting some of those hits. I do think his average takes a little dip, but on the bright side, all of his strikeouts at least come accompanied by a pretty good walk rate. The other good news is that he comes into this season with his position finally settled - I think that only bodes well. He could outperform my projection. [/QUOTE]If your projections are correct, Kinsler in round 4 might be better value as I have .275-25-90-110 runs - 25 stolen bases. Although he has gotten injured 2 years in a row which I think is the main reason he lasts into the 4th. [/QUOTE]I might be wrong, but I don't think you'll have to use a 4th-rounder on Kinsler. His ADP on Mockdraftcentral is #70 right now. The one concern at all that I have about him is his BA, but yeah, I think you're on target about him being a good value. [/QUOTE]Oops, you're right. Maybe I was hoping he was there in the 4th, if Mauer/McCann are gone.
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
How much validity is there to the argument that B.J. Upton's batting average was "lucky" considering the amount of K's he had?
Most think his batting average will decline this year, with good reason, but what about his peripherals. Without hearing player goals, shouldn't we reasonably expect higher, if not much higher stolen bases this year considering B.J.'s propensity to steal bases in the minors. Especially considering he had 150 stolen bases in 482 games in his minor league career, pro-rated that's 50 stolen bases per 162 games.
What kind of year are you projecting for Upton?
I've got him at .285-30-100-35 stolen bases. Considering he's a mega-talent, is this projection reasonable or too aggressive? My projection on Upton:
.285-21-77-93 (runs) - 34 SB. I think that's about the middle of his range. Yes, the BABIP was .399 last year, but then again, his speed helps him out a lot in getting some of those hits. I do think his average takes a little dip, but on the bright side, all of his strikeouts at least come accompanied by a pretty good walk rate. The other good news is that he comes into this season with his position finally settled - I think that only bodes well. He could outperform my projection. [/QUOTE]If your projections are correct, Kinsler in round 4 might be better value as I have .275-25-90-110 runs - 25 stolen bases. Although he has gotten injured 2 years in a row which I think is the main reason he lasts into the 4th. [/QUOTE]I might be wrong, but I don't think you'll have to use a 4th-rounder on Kinsler. His ADP on Mockdraftcentral is #70 right now. The one concern at all that I have about him is his BA, but yeah, I think you're on target about him being a good value. [/QUOTE]Oops, you're right. Maybe I was hoping he was there in the 4th, if Mauer/McCann are gone.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
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Jeff Erickson
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Originally posted by bjoak:
Jeff, aside from the day-to-day player notes and columns, what is the best feature of rotowire that you can't get anywhere else or that far surpasses everywhere else? Our personalized service. We have an Ask An Expert feature where you can get all of your specific questions answered within 24 hours; we have MyRotoWire where you can customize your news and stats feeds; and we try to be pretty responsive to specific suggestions of what you'd like to see on the site.
Jeff, aside from the day-to-day player notes and columns, what is the best feature of rotowire that you can't get anywhere else or that far surpasses everywhere else? Our personalized service. We have an Ask An Expert feature where you can get all of your specific questions answered within 24 hours; we have MyRotoWire where you can customize your news and stats feeds; and we try to be pretty responsive to specific suggestions of what you'd like to see on the site.
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Edwards Kings
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Jeff Erickson Will Chat Here Today At 2 PM ET
Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
Jeff,
As an industry guy I would think joining the nfbc is a no win situation for you? If you win you were expected to do so right? If you get smoked and finish dead last like Matt Berry did- that cannot be real good for business I would think?
Tough situation to be in, but I am glad you joined and look forward to meeting you in Vegas. They still pay out cash money, right? There's plenty to win, even with a weakened dollar!
And hey, I understand that there are a lot of great players out there, and for that matter, plenty that are probably better than I am. But I can play this game a little - I'm eager to give it a try.
And besides, if I do well, it'll only help us in terms of promotional value. And trust me, if I do well, I will be talking up how good each and every one of you are... [/QUOTE]Good point on the weakened dollar. Since Wisconsin is so close to Canada, do you think you could talk Greg into paying with Canadian dollars this year (like I ever won!)!
quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
Jeff,
As an industry guy I would think joining the nfbc is a no win situation for you? If you win you were expected to do so right? If you get smoked and finish dead last like Matt Berry did- that cannot be real good for business I would think?
Tough situation to be in, but I am glad you joined and look forward to meeting you in Vegas. They still pay out cash money, right? There's plenty to win, even with a weakened dollar!
And hey, I understand that there are a lot of great players out there, and for that matter, plenty that are probably better than I am. But I can play this game a little - I'm eager to give it a try.
And besides, if I do well, it'll only help us in terms of promotional value. And trust me, if I do well, I will be talking up how good each and every one of you are...
[/QUOTE]Good point on the weakened dollar. Since Wisconsin is so close to Canada, do you think you could talk Greg into paying with Canadian dollars this year (like I ever won!)!Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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Jeff Erickson
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Jeff Erickson Will Chat Here Today At 2 PM ET
Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Jeff,
Matt Cain had a wickedly good second half last year. I project him to be taken in the 9th/10th round in NFBC drafts in March. Considering his youth/talent mix, he seems like good value to me there. Your thoughts?
Another guy I can see having a good year and a good adp is Edwin Encarnacion. If he gets full-time AB’s (like I project) in that hitter-friendly ballpark, would you be surprised to see a 25/12 season from him?
Where do you have Pudge ranked on the catcher list?
Thanks! Yeah, Cain, if you can get him in the 9th or 10th, is good value. I only worry a little about him not being out of the injury-risk area, but if he can survive how Alou used him in 2006, then I suppose he's in pretty decent shape. I currently have him at #127 overall.
*Love* Encarnacion, and hope that the Reds finally just leave him alone and let him play every day. He got himself into trouble by not running out that pop-up early in April, and it took until the second half before he really broke out. What I like is that his defense also improved over the second half, so he's less likely to get yanked around this year.
Pudge - #189 overall, behind Johjima, but right there with Soto and a few others among catchers. [/QUOTE]Maybe not my place, but what's not talked about enough is the absolutely dreadful offense the Giants possess. How many wins can you expect. Last year he was 7-16. Let's say he's .500 this year, 12-12. If you take out his 4-1 August, he was 3-15 on the year. His peripherals would have to be pretty mindblowing to make up for the lack of wins. Yes, Cain can pitch, but I see McGowan having similar stats with atleast a few more wins, and you can get him later. Just my thought. [/QUOTE]It's a fair point. The Giants are going to be dreadful offensively, no doubt. And maybe because of that you can discount him by a round, but I almost never try to game the market where I try to predict wins, and just try to buy his skills instead. He was pretty unlucky last year, but also was wild in the first half of the season, when he picked up most of those losses. His control improved as he went on, and I think that bodes pretty well.
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Jeff,
Matt Cain had a wickedly good second half last year. I project him to be taken in the 9th/10th round in NFBC drafts in March. Considering his youth/talent mix, he seems like good value to me there. Your thoughts?
Another guy I can see having a good year and a good adp is Edwin Encarnacion. If he gets full-time AB’s (like I project) in that hitter-friendly ballpark, would you be surprised to see a 25/12 season from him?
Where do you have Pudge ranked on the catcher list?
Thanks! Yeah, Cain, if you can get him in the 9th or 10th, is good value. I only worry a little about him not being out of the injury-risk area, but if he can survive how Alou used him in 2006, then I suppose he's in pretty decent shape. I currently have him at #127 overall.
*Love* Encarnacion, and hope that the Reds finally just leave him alone and let him play every day. He got himself into trouble by not running out that pop-up early in April, and it took until the second half before he really broke out. What I like is that his defense also improved over the second half, so he's less likely to get yanked around this year.
Pudge - #189 overall, behind Johjima, but right there with Soto and a few others among catchers. [/QUOTE]Maybe not my place, but what's not talked about enough is the absolutely dreadful offense the Giants possess. How many wins can you expect. Last year he was 7-16. Let's say he's .500 this year, 12-12. If you take out his 4-1 August, he was 3-15 on the year. His peripherals would have to be pretty mindblowing to make up for the lack of wins. Yes, Cain can pitch, but I see McGowan having similar stats with atleast a few more wins, and you can get him later. Just my thought. [/QUOTE]It's a fair point. The Giants are going to be dreadful offensively, no doubt. And maybe because of that you can discount him by a round, but I almost never try to game the market where I try to predict wins, and just try to buy his skills instead. He was pretty unlucky last year, but also was wild in the first half of the season, when he picked up most of those losses. His control improved as he went on, and I think that bodes pretty well.
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Jeff Erickson
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Jeff Erickson Will Chat Here Today At 2 PM ET
Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
Give me one hitter and one pitcher in your opinion will WAY outproduce their draft slot? Jeremy Hermida and Billy Butler; Scott Baker. [/QUOTE]Very good picks. Thanks.
Another Minnesota pitcher I like even more is Kevin Slowey. Could have the best control the major leagues has seen in years. Loving that September he had. [/QUOTE]I like Slowey, but like Baker a little more because I think he can cause hitters to swing-and-miss a little more. Slowey isn't going to walk many, but I fear that he won't strike out as many at the major league level either.
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Erickson:
quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
Give me one hitter and one pitcher in your opinion will WAY outproduce their draft slot? Jeremy Hermida and Billy Butler; Scott Baker. [/QUOTE]Very good picks. Thanks.
Another Minnesota pitcher I like even more is Kevin Slowey. Could have the best control the major leagues has seen in years. Loving that September he had. [/QUOTE]I like Slowey, but like Baker a little more because I think he can cause hitters to swing-and-miss a little more. Slowey isn't going to walk many, but I fear that he won't strike out as many at the major league level either.
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Jeff Erickson
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Jeff Erickson Will Chat Here Today At 2 PM ET
Originally posted by Hard Heads:
What do you think the Yankees do with Joba, starter or setup guy? I think that he'll take the Billingsley path - begin the year in the bullpen, finish in the rotation, and stick there going forward. Or maybe I'm just projecting what I want them to do - the whole "Earl Weaver" method of developing pitchers.
What do you think the Yankees do with Joba, starter or setup guy? I think that he'll take the Billingsley path - begin the year in the bullpen, finish in the rotation, and stick there going forward. Or maybe I'm just projecting what I want them to do - the whole "Earl Weaver" method of developing pitchers.
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Jeff Erickson
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Jeff Erickson Will Chat Here Today At 2 PM ET
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I'll let Jeff answer as many more questions as he can before he has to take off but I wanted to thank him again for joining us today. Everyone who signs up for our event will receive a free copy of the RotoWire baseball magazine featuring Jeff's great work (among many others) and those of you drafting in Vegas will get an opportunity to meet him in person and maybe even compete against him in your league.
Thanks again Jeff and have fun in Vegas. My pleasure. Is it a good thing when fellow competitors say that they hope I'm in their league?
I'll let Jeff answer as many more questions as he can before he has to take off but I wanted to thank him again for joining us today. Everyone who signs up for our event will receive a free copy of the RotoWire baseball magazine featuring Jeff's great work (among many others) and those of you drafting in Vegas will get an opportunity to meet him in person and maybe even compete against him in your league.
Thanks again Jeff and have fun in Vegas. My pleasure. Is it a good thing when fellow competitors say that they hope I'm in their league?