NFBC Round by Round Bums - First 5 rounds

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Tue Sep 11, 2007 3:17 pm

ON EDIT 9/12 - a re-examination will be posted soon down below in a new post, based on ESPN's system, which appears more accurate than STATs. In addition, I'll start a new thread for rounds 6-10 later. END EDIT.

Since we're almost finished, and I'm just sitting here like every night staring at CBS red and blue dots (lol), I thought it would be a cool idea to look over the consensus first rounders, second rounders, etc., to see which guys really stand out this year as bums.

1st Round - Pujols, Reyes, Soriano, Arod, Crawford, Howard, Utley, Santana, Beltran, Ortiz, Cabrera, Guerrero, Wright, Berkman, Sizemore...

And the loser is - In a close race, Soriano beats out Berkman, as the bum for round 1, though this could easily change over the next 19 days. Soriano's pathetic 53 RBIs seals his fate as of now.

2nd Round - Rollins, Holliday, Teixeira, Hafner, Jeter, H Ramirez, C Lee, D Lee, Ichiro, M Ramirez, Bay, A Ramirez, Abreu, Tejada, Morneau...

And the loser is - wow, this one is close, and the biggest loser IS NOT Jason Bay...could of swore he had it locked up, but his 4 SBs saved his ass according to STATs rankings...Hafner is the bum of Round 2, though both Bay and Tejada are still in the hunt.

3rd Round - Wells, Atkins, Furcal, Mauer, A Jones, Konerko, M Young, Figgins, Carpenter, Dye, Damon, Roberts, V-Mart, K-Rod, Pierre...

And the loser is - Carpenter without question...while there are a lot of losers from the 3rd round, Carpenter's misfortune, after his opening day disaster, leaves everyone else eating dust. However, since some people might not think it's cool to pick on an all-season injured player, a consolation prize is awarded to the merely often-injured catcher, Joe Mauer, who beats out Furcal.

4th Round - Oswalt, Nathan, Hall, Zambrano, Delgado, Peavy, BJ Ryan, Wagner, McCann, Halladay, H Matsui, Rivera, Guillen, Fielder, Webb...

Two more envelopes...and the loser is - BJ Ryan, with a special consolation prize awarded to Bill Hall, who terrorized his owners for a very long time, before most of them gave up on him. No one else is even close.

5th Round - Thome, Lopez, Cano, Street, Sheets, Dunn, Rios, Sheffield, Zimmerman, Baldelli, Hunter, Matsuzaka, Hoffman, Bonderman, Lugo...

Some real stinkers from this round, but clearly the loser is - Baldelli, who broke a lot of hearts again, ala Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Rich Harden....

Oh well, that's my take on the first 5 - lots of great picks, but some real disastrous ones as well.

John

[ September 12, 2007, 08:21 PM: Message edited by: SluggoJD ]

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:19 pm

Sluggo,

Great post. I agree with most of the picks as the biggest loser, but I want to run against the ESPN rater which I have found to be much more reliable than the STATS rankings. STATS seems to have a hard time in particuar with Batting Average and Atbats (this is a very common issue on player rates)... Some of my personal 'biggest losers' on my 4 teams include Soriano, Bay, WELLS, and Ryan.

Spy

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:07 am

Wow! Amazing to see how many from the early "Lock" player rounds really stunk it up. Round Three was especially brutal.

Yet another reason why I am in the middle...Bay 2nd, Dye 3rd, Street 5th.

Mr Dalrae · Post by **Mr Dalrae** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 7:23 am

Dear SLUGGO JD,A great topic.As the end of the season rapidly closes in on us and all I need are those extra dozen or so runs,rbi,homers,steals,saves and points in bat avg.,(and I mean just a few)to be collecting a pay check I curse at the mention of these names.1st RD pick-Hafner 4th RD pick-B.J.Ryan 5th RD pick-Felipe Lopez and since its oooh so close my 6th RD pick was Rockless(I feel a twinge in one of my hamsrings again)Baldelli! THANKYOU! I personally find it helps to vent as often as possible.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:47 pm

Thanks guys - you motivated me to do the next 5 rounds later tonight, while I watch those red and blue dots

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 2:16 pm

Spy,

Thanks for the heads-up on ESPN's rater. Interesting how they cap the leader at 5 points, and then work down. Similar to CDM's rater, yet different. It appears they accurately weigh BA - for example, Holliday scores higher than Utley, even though Utley's BA is a little higher, because Holliday has a lot more ABs - so that's good to see.

I haven't checked CDM's this year - in the past, their rater was quite good except for ERA (and maybe WHIP...forgot).

I'll consult these tonight in the new thread, and re-examine the first 5 rounds as well.

John

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Wed Sep 12, 2007 2:50 pm

Re-evaluation of the first 5 rounds, based on ESPN's superior player rater...three cheers for Spy, for turning me on to this

1st Round - Pujols, Reyes, Soriano, Arod, Crawford, Howard, Utley, Santana, Beltran, Ortiz, Cabrera, Guerrero, Wright, Berkman, Sizemore...

And the loser still is - Soriano, beating out Berkman.

2nd Round - Rollins, Holliday, Teixeira, Hafner, Jeter, H Ramirez, C Lee, D Lee, Ichiro, M Ramirez, Bay, A Ramirez, Abreu, Tejada, Morneau...

And the new loser is - Jason Bay! Bay barely beats out Hafner according to ESPN, with Tejada a little further back as 3rd worst bum of the 2nd round.

3rd Round - Wells, Atkins, Furcal, Mauer, A Jones, Konerko, M Young, Figgins, Carpenter, Dye, Damon, Roberts, V-Mart, K-Rod, Pierre...

And the loser is - doesn't matter what rater we use for this round...Carpenter carries the day. However, like before, since some people might not think it's cool to pick on an all-season injured player, a consolation prize is awarded once again to Joe Mauer, who beats our Furcal in a close race.

4th Round - Oswalt, Nathan, Hall, Zambrano, Delgado, Peavy, BJ Ryan, Wagner, McCann, Halladay, H Matsui, Rivera, Guillen, Fielder, Webb...

And the loser still is - BJ Ryan, who went down for the count after only 2 weeks. Once again, a consolation prize is awarded to Bill Hall, who probably deserves to win the 4th round, since a lot of people stuck with him for a long time, hoping he would get his head out of his...

5th Round - Thome, Lopez, Cano, Street, Sheets, Dunn, Rios, Sheffield, Zimmerman, Baldelli, Hunter, Matsuzaka, Hoffman, Bonderman, Lugo...

And the loser still is - Baldelli in a landslide, with consolation awards going to Felipe Lopez and Lugo for their outstandingly bad contributions to their owners this year.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 2:53 am

Sluggo, thanks for going back and looking into this. I just have been busy with a work trip and my new baby so haven't had to the time to revist. Glad I could turn you onto a new tool, and thanks against for continuing this analysis!!!!

Spy

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:02 pm

Great posts JD. In 1 sat I have Hafner, D. Lee, Nathan, B.J. Ryan, and Baldelli in rounds 1 to 5. How the h$%l am I in first? Got Piazza in round 9 too and was happy about it back in March. As I had said in the last off season these things are won in the later rounds.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:15 pm

Gee Vander, I don't have the slightest idea how you can be in first with all those bums lol.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:16 pm

And Spy, congrats on the enlarged family! lol

Hope you get some sleep from time to time.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 4:15 pm

ummm, yeah, I am on the 3am patrol. My wife just can't handle everything so that has become how I help out. Our son is amazing, but dang, he is a ton of work. I am glad that I am falling apart in my 2 big leagues so can focus on only managing the 2 smaller leagues where I am doing much better. Fingers crossed, only about 2 more weeks to hold it together!!!

GL to all

Spy