The Battle For The $100,000 Grand Prize

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:49 am

It's far too early to predict who will win the 2007 NFBC overall title and the $100,000 grand prize, but it's never too early to analyze how the teams in the hunt for this prize got there. Just looking at the Top 20 teams overall, there are some interesting facts. Let's look at a few:

1) Two sets of teams in our Top 10 are in the same league. TOWNIES (John Rundle) and Guess Who? (Mark Srebro) are first and third overall and are battling for the New York League 5 title. Fat Tub of Goo (Terry Haney) and Paco THYME (Paul Weber) are fourth and ninth overall from Chicago League 1.

2) The Top 20 teams overall come from 14 different leagues.

3) Of the Top 20 teams, 11 draft spots are represented. Nobody in the Top 20 drafted from 1, 9, 10 or 15. 12 of the Top 20 teams drafted from the first half of the draft, 3 drafted from the eighth spot and five teams drafted in the bottom half.

4) Three teams in the Top 20 drafted from the second spot, three from the fourth spot, three from the sixth spot and three from the eighth spot. Two Top 20 teams drafted from 12 and 14, with one team each at 3, 5, 7, and 11.

5) Two of the Top 3 teams (Inebriated and loving it and Guess Who?) drafted Johan Santana first, but nobody else in the Top 20 has Santana. The most common player on Top 20 teams is Chase Utley, who is currently on the DL but is on four Top 20 teams. A-Rod is on three teams and Alfonso Soriano is on three teams.

Here's a look at the Top 20 teams as of today and where they drafted:

1. TOWNIES, 3rd pick, Alex Rodriguez

2. Inebriated and loving it, 6th pick, Johan Santana

3. Guess Who?, 6th pick, Johan Santana

4. Fat Tub of Goo, 7th pick, Alex Rodriguez

5. CC's Desperados, 12th pick, David Wright

6. Team Cummings, 14th pick, Carlos Lee

7. Pimpin' Trigger Jr., 11th pick, Travis Hafner

8. HOGS BOYS, 2nd pick, Jose Reyes

9. PACO THYME, 6th pick, Chase Utley

10. The Syndicate, 4th pick, Alfonso Soriano

11. Bringing down the house, 8th pick, Chase Utley

12. Team Jaffe, 12th pick, Chase Utley

13. DOUGHBOYS, 2nd pick, Alfonso Soriano

14. Rocky Cherry Fan Club, 8th pick, Chase Utley

15. Team Poulson, 5th pick, Carl Crawford

16. RotoPlay.com, 2nd pick, Jose Reyes

17. Puddle of Nud, 4th pick, Alex Rodriguez

18. Incredible Hulking Us, 4th pick, Alfonso Soriano

19. Quahogs, 8th pick, Ryan Howard

20. Heads, 14th pick, Carlos Lee

6) It's amazing how many of the same names are in the Top 20 each year. Shawn Childs is 5th overall and trying for a Top 20 finish for the fourth straight year. Jules McLean dominated the NFFC last year during the regular season and is 7th overall here in the NFBC. Terry Haney finished in the Top 10 in 2004 and is 4th overall this year. Dan Kenyon, Korey Gardner, Michael Edelman, Stephen Jupinka and Laurence Edelman are again in the Top 20 and seem to be year-in and year-out.

Great job everyone. It's obvious you can win from any draft spot and we won't know who will win this year's title for another 6+ weeks. Should be a wild, wild finish. Good luck all.

[ August 16, 2007, 10:42 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 2:15 am

Greg, this list makes me feel much better. Since we had Pujolis drop to us at #3 we went for him. Makes me feel a little better that the other 27 teams that picked him in the #1 spot haven't been able to over come his disappointing season either

I am most impressed with #7 and #10 (and everyone who picked soriano). To start with your #1 pick doing so poorly then to be in the top 20 is fantastic.

I like following the fight for the top this year as it is a bit more fluid and anyone could win!

Regards,

Spy

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 2:38 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Greg, this list makes me feel much better. Since we had Pujolis drop to us at #3 we went for him. Makes me feel a little better that the other 27 teams that picked him in the #1 spot haven't been able to over come his disappointing season either

I am most impressed with #7 and #10 (and everyone who picked soriano). To start with your #1 pick doing so poorly then to be in the top 20 is fantastic.

I like following the fight for the top this year as it is a bit more fluid and anyone could win!

Regards,

Spy Yes, the listing of first round picks is just a snapshot of these teams' successes as obviously they're not all winning because of their top picks. I mean, it's not like Travis Hafner is helping Jules' team like LT2 did in the NFFC!!

She obviously had a GREAT draft after Hafner. And many teams are still winning with Utley and Soriano on the DL, which is solid. But it is revealing that not a single team in the Top 20 has Albert Pujols.

Anyone can win this year, so it should be fun to watch this the rest of the way. Stay tuned.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:51 am

Greg, I agree people can win from any pick position, but I think this demonstrates who you pick is pretty important (obviously not the only factor, but important). If you look at the data, the top 20 broke out like the following:

Utley: 4

Soriano: 4

Arod: 3

Santana: 2

Reyes: 2

Lee: 2

Wright: 1

Hafner: 1

Crawford: 1

What we dont' know is if the reason these people are doing well is because of their first pick, or because their overall strategy worked better.

But I will try and throw out a few observations:

1. Power/Speed Combos win. Note players like Pujolis, Ortiz, Howard are COMPLETELY Missing. The only guy you could say on this list that is pure power is Hafner and he is on only 1 time

2. Picking a pitcher 1st isn't the kiss of death for having a good offense. You don't get on this list with just pitching. Now, personally, I think one day Santana's arm will fall off but until it does, he is paying huge dividends

3. You must get the level of performance you are paying for. Note that Pujolis isn't listed. If your #1 player has a mediocre season, it is damn hard to come back from that.

Regards,

Spy

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 4:01 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Greg, I agree people can win from any pick position, but I think this demonstrates who you pick is pretty important (obviously not the only factor, but important). If you look at the data, the top 20 broke out like the following:

Utley: 4

Soriano: 4

Arod: 3

Santana: 2

Reyes: 2

Lee: 2

Wright: 1

Hafner: 1

Crawford: 1

What we dont' know is if the reason these people are doing well is because of their first pick, or because their overall strategy worked better.

But I will try and throw out a few observations:

1. Power/Speed Combos win. Note players like Pujolis, Ortiz, Howard are COMPLETELY Missing. The only guy you could say on this list that is pure power is Hafner and he is on only 1 time

2. Picking a pitcher 1st isn't the kiss of death for having a good offense. You don't get on this list with just pitching. Now, personally, I think one day Santana's arm will fall off but until it does, he is paying huge dividends

3. You must get the level of performance you are paying for. Note that Pujolis isn't listed. If your #1 player has a mediocre season, it is damn hard to come back from that.

Regards,

Spy let me throw a monkey wrench in your analysis there Chris.. Greg had it wrong, my #1 pick was Ryan Howard. I was wrong to pass on Wright.

Q

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 4:43 am

Yes, my bad there Q. I wrote it down right and typed it wrong. You indeed did pick Mr. Howard with the 8th pick and have battled through other injuries as well. You're doing a stellar job son!!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:12 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Yes, my bad there Q. I wrote it down right and typed it wrong. You indeed did pick Mr. Howard with the 8th pick and have battled through other injuries as well. You're doing a stellar job son!!

Was is the word here. I've been calling for reinforcements but NY lg 1's not letting me have nothin. NOTHIN' Jerry nothing !

Q

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 2:13 pm

ok, fair enough I was off by 2, still, out of 20 1st round picks only 2 pure power picks in the top 20 is still pretty interesting I think

Au contrair Q, you have left us nothing! The nunber of pickups you outbid me on is crazy. Thank goodness I got Theriot over you otherwise we would be even worse in the crapper

Good luck Q, you have been a great competitor and a good guy, I hope you win the $100k!

Spy

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:15 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

ok, fair enough I was off by 2, still, out of 20 1st round picks only 2 pure power picks in the top 20 is still pretty interesting I think

Au contrair Q, you have left us nothing! The nunber of pickups you outbid me on is crazy. Thank goodness I got Theriot over you otherwise we would be even worse in the crapper

Good luck Q, you have been a great competitor and a good guy, I hope you win the $100k!

Spy Thanks Spy. You've made a nice reversal from the depths yourself. Just think, in 6 short weeks we can lay this season to rest and start scouting out for '08!

Q

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Aug 22, 2007 9:19 am

QH, I can't wait to get the spreadsheets going for next year. I am tired of looking up at you and need a new thing to focus on

Anyway, nice competition this year for the $100k, it looks wide open to me this year and could change quite a bit between now and the end of the season....

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 6:27 am

There are some great teams up there and some really nice owners. I will be happy to see any of a few of you win...

Quahogs - you are hands down one of the best fantasy owners out there, same for you CC's and Incredible Hulking Us!

I'm sure there are others I am missing or don't recognize a few team names, but I have to say

HOW CAN ANYONE NOT BE PULLING FOR GEKKO RIGHT NOW??? Can you imagine the messages if he wins?

I think it goes to show, people may not like some of his postings or what he says, but you can't argue with the results...

PS - Quahogs, next year in Ultamite, we lock Bluebloods in the bathroom...that guy is unbelievable!!!

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 6:33 am

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

There are some great teams up there and some really nice owners. I will be happy to see any of a few of you win...

Quahogs - you are hands down one of the best fantasy owners out there, same for you CC's and Incredible Hulking Us!

I'm sure there are others I am missing or don't recognize a few team names, but I have to say

HOW CAN ANYONE NOT BE PULLING FOR GEKKO RIGHT NOW??? Can you imagine the messages if he wins?

I think it goes to show, people may not like some of his postings or what he says, but you can't argue with the results...

PS - Quahogs, next year in Ultamite, we lock Bluebloods in the bathroom...that guy is unbelievable!!!

I for one root for Mark he is a good guy who has earned his spot near the top. He would be silly to talk a bunch of smack if he wins because the results say enough. Don't hate him for knowing Chase Utley was a first round pick......

edelman24 · Post by **edelman24** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 7:03 am

thanks for the kind words pooppy. Now too bad im 9th overall but I am 3rd in my own league, since gekko and townies are both in my league!!!! some luck I have this year! lol

-IHU

[ August 23, 2007, 01:04 PM: Message edited by: edelman24 ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 8:25 am

IHU -That must be a good league. Best of luck to you!

Chest - have always been a fan of Mark. I thought he went Santana in 1st round...however, yes, I did not think utley was a 1st rounder...injury aside, I was wrong on that one.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 9:03 am

I root for "------"

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 9:08 am

5.5 weeks left. lot can happen.

with townies losing hamels this may be my best chance. i need a white hot week to get it done. thanks for the kind words gentlemen.

i've redefined myself as a fantasy baseball player this year. i always thought i was good, but i never knew how bad i really was until i decided to take all of this to a new level.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 10:35 am

Originally posted by edelman24:

thanks for the kind words pooppy. Now too bad im 9th overall but I am 3rd in my own league, since gekko and townies are both in my league!!!! some luck I have this year! lol

-IHU Wow! Ok, I will stop whining about how tough Tampa #1 is now!

Good luck in the stretch to all that have a shot...well played no matter what happens!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:41 pm

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

There are some great teams up there and some really nice owners. I will be happy to see any of a few of you win...

Quahogs - you are hands down one of the best fantasy owners out there, same for you CC's and Incredible Hulking Us!

I'm sure there are others I am missing or don't recognize a few team names, but I have to say

HOW CAN ANYONE NOT BE PULLING FOR GEKKO RIGHT NOW??? Can you imagine the messages if he wins?

I think it goes to show, people may not like some of his postings or what he says, but you can't argue with the results...

PS - Quahogs, next year in Ultamite, we lock Bluebloods in the bathroom...that guy is unbelievable!!!

thanks poops. The top 10 for me is a distant memory.

What a lousy bunch of bums lately. You making it to football this year ? BB - there is no stopping him, you can only hope to contain him. (sorry for the oft used but apt description)

Q

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:03 am

Q - I won't be able to play football this year. I just don't have the cash.

I will be back for another azz whippin in baseball next year!

Good luck in football and the rest of your baseball leagues. It looks like you have a good shot at $40K in Ultamite.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sat Aug 25, 2007 5:36 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by edelman24:

thanks for the kind words pooppy. Now too bad im 9th overall but I am 3rd in my own league, since gekko and townies are both in my league!!!! some luck I have this year! lol

-IHU Wow! Ok, I will stop whining about how tough Tampa #1 is now!

Good luck in the stretch to all that have a shot...well played no matter what happens! [/QUOTE]Is it just me or is 3 guys in one leage in the top 9 overall a sign that the league overall is weak since the overall league is rated pretty low at ~28,100 points? Seems to me that there are 3-5 really good players in this league and it is unbalanced. It may not be a good league to be in to place, but overall seems like the league is weaker than others?

Spy

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Aug 26, 2007 1:50 am

I do not think you can honestly assume that, Spy. Not without playing in the league first. There could be some great owners top to bottom, but the top teams were fortunate to avoid the injury bug, luck, et al could as easily be the cause of the separation.

I can only speak for Tampa #1 and this league is also in the bottom third of the league rankings. However, with the exception of the bottom two who have had a recent horrible run, I honestly feel thirteen teams are in the running for the money. I myself was in dead last a couple of weeks ago and now am in sixth (so believe me when I say I am not counting out the bottom two either). A team that was below me a month ago is in second. I think we have had at least five or six leaders during the course of the year.

The only point here is the overall league rank is misleading at best.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:27 am

i wish this season would end..i can't take the this league anymore..its causing me to lose sleep staying up watching every stinkin game

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Aug 26, 2007 4:12 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by edelman24:

thanks for the kind words pooppy. Now too bad im 9th overall but I am 3rd in my own league, since gekko and townies are both in my league!!!! some luck I have this year! lol

-IHU Wow! Ok, I will stop whining about how tough Tampa #1 is now!

Good luck in the stretch to all that have a shot...well played no matter what happens! [/QUOTE]Is it just me or is 3 guys in one leage in the top 9 overall a sign that the league overall is weak since the overall league is rated pretty low at ~28,100 points? Seems to me that there are 3-5 really good players in this league and it is unbalanced. It may not be a good league to be in to place, but overall seems like the league is weaker than others?

Spy [/QUOTE]It's just you.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Aug 26, 2007 9:18 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

i wish this season would end..i can't take the this league anymore..its causing me to lose sleep staying up watching every stinkin game Want to switch places?

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 2:51 am

lol...no