Review Of Top 20 Sleeper Picks

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 5:35 am

This year I asked our NFBC veterans to help me with a story for Fantasy Sports Magazine, giving me their sleeper picks for 2007. We had 17 different NFBC owners give us one pick each with a nice analysis of why they picked that player and then Tom and I filled out the rest. It was a nice article and one I'll continue with the next football issue and of course next baseball season.

As I look at that issue today, I'm glad to report that our contributors did not hold back with their sleeper picks. Several were very astute. Someone here actually deserves a prize for their astuteness. Pick a winner and I'll scramble around my desk to find a prize after the voting is done (a Pete Rose autographed baseball surely needs to resurface, right?).

Anyway, here were the nominations:

1. Anthony Reyes by Richard Gordon

2. Adam Lind by Stephen Jupinka

3. Noah Lowry by Kent Stermon

4. A.J. Burnett by Eric Peden

5. Boof Bonser by Karl Mische

6. Wes Helms by Dan Kenyon

7. Kevin Kouzmanoff by Dave Van Der Stuyf

8. Hunter Pence by Wayne Edwards

9. Ryan Church by Brian Feldman

10. Dave Ross by Perry Van Hook

11. Miguel Montero by Jim Ferrari

12. Mark Teahen by Eddie Gillis

13. Matt Cain by Jesse Herron

14. Jorge Cantu by Mark Srebro

15. Matt Garza by Gary Cutler

16. Freddy Garcia by Kevin Kirves

17. Mark Buerhle by Greg Ambrosius

18. Corey Hart by Brian Oakchunas

19. Nook Logan by Tom Kessenich

20. Brandon McCarthy by Greg Ambrosius

That's a very interesting list with some hits and misses, but that happens with every Sleeper list. Thanks everyone for your honest answers and analysis as this made for a solid article and get ready for next year.

Okay, who gets the prize for best Sleeper pick? I'll make my vote at the end of the week.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 5:53 am

Pence and Lowry would get my vote...and since Pence was a stud rookie prospect...Lowry would get the "sleeper" tie breaker.

Burnett and Cain were too high profile to be a true sleeper IMO.

~Lance

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 6:04 am

I agree with Lance , Cain and Burnett would not be sleepers they are out.You also need to play out the whole year, why, because by the end of the year it will be Teahan.

Actually i like the Buerle pick right now, his K's are up and he's pitching like he did a couple years ago.I grabbed him for 7 dollars in the Vegas auction and he was a steal.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 6:25 am

pence

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 6:40 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

14. Jorge Cantu by Mark SrebroClassic Gekko -- misinformation at its finest

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:45 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Pence and Lowry would get my vote...and since Pence was a stud rookie prospect...Lowry would get the "sleeper" tie breaker.

Burnett and Cain were too high profile to be a true sleeper IMO.

~Lance Agreed above, and although his batting average is down (solid OBP), the Lind call by Quahogs was a good one. He was a much earlier callup than expected. I think the Ryan Church analysis was also solid from Brian.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:01 am

James Shields and Shane Victorino, oh wait, I forgot the submission..although I did draft them in 4 out of 5 leagues. Have been enjoying a nice return on 2 of my favorite sleepers entering the season.

My vote would be for Pence so far. He's been more valuable than all the other players, regardless of the rookie status or not.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:05 am

I don't even deserve a Pete Rose Jr. baseball for that Nook Logan pick.

Berkshire Juggernauts · Post by **Berkshire Juggernauts** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:36 am

I also vote for Pence, he has been great we picked him up the week before his call-up for 18 bucks

.

Berkshire Juggernauts · Post by **Berkshire Juggernauts** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:37 am

Eddie I think Teahen might be the winner at the end of the year also

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:39 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I don't even deserve a Pete Rose Jr. baseball for that Nook Logan pick. Don't worry, you're not getting one!!

Your pick ran into the wall on Opening Day and immediately went on the DL. Nice pick!!!

Richie · Post by **Richie** » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:45 am

I had touted A Reyes as my sleeper. Thats why i am doing so well. Actually, i did not get him on any of my 5 tea,ms. But the words I used helps me. I compared him to Carpenter. That is an accurate pick for this year. Accurately bad

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Jun 13, 2007 8:50 am

By the end of spring training, I honestly thought Pence was going to be a better '08 sleeper/prospect as the Astros did not look like they were moving off of Biggio, Burke or Lane, which had to occur for Pence to get the nod. Shows what can happen really fast in struggling organizations.

By the time I had rostered all of my "proven" players, my outfield was crowded, so I ended up not trying to draft Pence. I am so good at outsmarting myself sometimes...

FFBL23 · Post by **FFBL23** » Wed Jun 13, 2007 9:03 am

Greg,

I would like to apologize for that Freddy Garcia sleeper pick. Wow, that looks really bad now after the injury. I hope this doesn't affect my status as a member of the Content Panel for 2008.

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Wed Jun 13, 2007 9:24 am

Pence.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Jun 13, 2007 11:01 am

I drafted Teahen in the main event in round 9 and paid 22 for him in the auction.I really gave out my sleeper pick, i wonder how many gave it there best.There was way more bad pick's then good one's. Boonser is another one in the top 5, lets play out the year and see what happens.Another nice night for Teahen, YES.

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 5:05 am

Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

Pence. Pence, and Teahen is shaping up to be a nice sleeper pick....

worst pick..Cantu

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 5:22 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I drafted Teahen in the main event in round 9 and paid 22 for him in the auction.I really gave out my sleeper pick, i wonder how many gave it there best.There was way more bad pick's then good one's. Boonser is another one in the top 5, lets play out the year and see what happens.Another nice night for Teahen, YES. not quite sure how Teahen can be considered a "sleeper". The guy had 840 major league ab's coming into '07. I know the term sleeper has a loose definition. It used to refer to a player very few saw coming who'd put together competitive #'s as compared to others at his position. Teahen came in highly touted and owned a starting job based on his '06's and was widely pursued. Pence ? He had 0 MLB ab's coming into the season and was farmed out during ST. That person had to foresee Burke and or Lane losing his job and have Pence be recalled early enough in the season AND produce well to be a factor. Sorry, it should be PENCE hands down.

Q

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 6:17 am

Good point Q. He had an ADP of 117.68, that puts him in the 8th round. I took Papelbon in the 8th, is that a sleeper?

I'd have to agree with the Pence camp.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 6:24 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Good point Q. He had an ADP of 117.68, that puts him in the 8th round. I took Papelbon in the 8th, is that a sleeper?

I'd have to agree with the Pence camp. thanks Joe. Hey you're a mass fenway guy right ? I made it to a game there tuesday night. Beautiful park to watch a game. Great surrounding area too. I came away very impressed.

Q

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 6:37 am

I love Fenway. The new ownership has done wonders. Every year they have improved upon something.

The biggest problem that still exists is the tight quarters in the grandstand seats, and the angle of many of the 1st base line/right field seats. But the Fenway experience is great.

Tuesday night? You actually got ripped off. That game was about 2 hrs and 20 minutes, most games are up in the 3 hour range. I hope you got to soak in some of Yawkey Way and Landsdowne Street.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 6:44 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I love Fenway. The new ownership has done wonders. Every year they have improved upon something.

The biggest problem that still exists is the tight quarters in the grandstand seats, and the angle of many of the 1st base line/right field seats. But the Fenway experience is great.

Tuesday night? You actually got ripped off. That game was about 2 hrs and 20 minutes, most games are up in the 3 hour range. I hope you got to soak in some of Yawkey Way and Landsdowne Street. Fast paced is right. We even had to blow out early since we were looking at a long ride back to NJ. Didn't see everything of course - just means we gotta come back

Q

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:59 pm

Quhoag's the question was by Greg,give me their sleeper picks for 2007.I think a lot of people let Teahan slip into the 10th , 11th and even deeper in some leagues, one reason he didnt get 400 at bats last year.Also 17 of the twenty sleepers had starting job's , only Pence ,Garza who some thought would start including me, and Lind didnt have starting jobs.I guess it comes down too what is a sleeper, yes i agree Pence is a great pick , but the question wasnt what minor leaguer will come up 1st and have an impact.

I think Greg wanted starting players that just didnt perform the year before because of injury or just a bad year.But your argument he had a starting job doesnt work , like i said 17 out of 20 had starting job's.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Jun 15, 2007 2:23 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Quhoag's the question was by Greg,give me their sleeper picks for 2007.I think a lot of people let Teahan slip into the 10th , 11th and even deeper in some leagues, one reason he didnt get 400 at bats last year.Also 17 of the twenty sleepers had starting job's , only Pence ,Garza who some thought would start including me, and Lind didnt have starting jobs.I guess it comes down too what is a sleeper, yes i agree Pence is a great pick , but the question wasnt what minor leaguer will come up 1st and have an impact.

I think Greg wanted starting players that just didnt perform the year before because of injury or just a bad year.But your argument he had a starting job doesnt work , like i said 17 out of 20 had starting job's. Like I said the sleeper definition seems to be loosely defined. I'm of the belief that it should be a player you can draft rds 20 and higher that can end up performing like a 10th rounder. To me Cain, Burnett, Teahen etc should be classified as breakout candidates.

Q

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Fri Jun 15, 2007 3:29 am

It may be semantics, but Teahen would more aptly be classified a breakout candidate, and not a sleeper. I think the ADP confirms that. Unless his ADP can be attributed to the seal of approval received by Eddie G.