NFBC Message Boards

Covered on SiriusXM Fantasy by Colton and the Wolfman, 8:00 PM ET

1. Tim McLeod, Prospect 361
2. Steve Gardner, USA TODAY Sports
3. Fred Zinkie, MLB.com
4. Rudy Gamble, Razzball
5. Ray Murphy, Baseball HQ
6. Todd Zola, Mastersball
7. Mike Podhorzer, Fangraphs
8. Jake Ciely, RotoExperts/FNTSY
9. Scott Pianowski, Yahoo! Sports
10. Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus
11. Derek VanRiper, Rotowire
12. Alan Harrison, @TheFantasyFix
13. Stephania Bell, ESPN
14. Paul Sporer/Jason Collette, Fangraphs' Sleeper and the Bust podcast
15. "Dr. Roto" Mark Bloom, Scout Fantasy

Follow the standings, roster moves and league news all season long at http://www.RTSports.com/LABR-mixed.

I shall be watching this one tonight Todd. Thanks for the draft board link.

I thought this was an interesting draft last night. We'll definitely talk about it on our High Stakes Fantasy Advantage show on SiriusXM tonight and compare some of the picks to our NFBC ADPs. Here's the draft board again from last night:

http://www.RTSports.com/LABR-mixed.

Here are some interesting picks in comparison to the NFBC:

Paul Goldschmidt 7th (he has been falling in the NFBC as well, but his ADP remains 3)
5 SPs in the first 18 picks (NFBC has Top 5 in first 25 picks)
Aaron Judge 23rd (ADP of 16)
Andrew Benintendi 31st (ADP of 40)
Christian Yelich 35th (ADP of 65, but moving up since his trade to Milwaukee)
Rhys Hoskins 37 (ADP of 48)
Anthony Rendon 39th (ADP of 56); went ahead of Alex Bregman, who went 40th (ADP of 31)
Billy Hamilton 51 (ADP of 60)
Yu Darvish 57 (ADP of 49)
Lorenzo Cain 74 (ADP of 90)
Jose Berrios 76 (ADP of 105)
Shohei Ohtani 83 (ADP of 72); somewhat surprisingly low since he can be used as a Hitter and Pitcher in LABR
Ozzie Albies 90th (ADP of 138)
Miguel Cabrera 112 (ADP of 88)
Luke Weaver 135 (ADP of 106)

Scott Pianowski went 13 rounds before taking a SP in Round 14. His first pitcher came in Round 12 in Andrew Miller. Very interesting strategy there.

Nothing overtly stands out from this draft, but some interesting picks nonetheless.

Thoughts?

I think people are mildly overreacting to the potential humidor concerns with Goldie.

Not only did Scott draft a 25 point pitching staff, that team is really slow.

Yah Mule wrote:I think people are mildly overreacting to the potential humidor concerns with Goldie.

Working through the numbers now, but looking at about 4 few HR, around 15 fewer runs+RBI, a couple points in BA which could drop SB 1 or 2. The concern is justified.

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/a-humidor ... with-that/

ToddZ wrote:

Yah Mule wrote:I think people are mildly overreacting to the potential humidor concerns with Goldie.

Working through the numbers now, but looking at about 4 few HR, around 15 fewer runs+RBI, a couple points in BA which could drop SB 1 or 2. The concern is justified.

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/a-humidor ... with-that/

Maybe they'll give him 2016 level stolen base attempts to play more to the new style of the park, if the change is even that significant. His career home/away splits are so similar that I think his 2018 season will probably be roughly the average of his 13-17 seasons.

I'm not down on you picking Charlie over him. Roster construction is critical and I understand why you like Shaw five rounds later in that vastly improved lineup. You even mitigate some of the 1B stolen bases you miss passing on Goldschmidt. I strongly value consistency and stability in a top pick and I think Goldie's reliability rating is almost on a level with Trout. That makes him a tie-breaker for me against a lot of guys.

Yah Mule wrote:

ToddZ wrote:

Yah Mule wrote:I think people are mildly overreacting to the potential humidor concerns with Goldie.

Working through the numbers now, but looking at about 4 few HR, around 15 fewer runs+RBI, a couple points in BA which could drop SB 1 or 2. The concern is justified.

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/a-humidor ... with-that/

Maybe they'll give him 2016 level stolen base attempts to play more to the new style of the park, if the change is even that significant. His career home/away splits are so similar that I think his 2018 season will probably be roughly the average of his 13-17 seasons.

The disparity in Goldschmidt's H/A splits are larger than league average splits. He performs much better at home.

Not every player will be affected the same, but they'll all be affected.

ToddZ wrote: The disparity in Goldschmidt's H/A splits are larger than league average splits. He performs much better at home.

Not every player will be affected the same, but they'll all be affected.

His career home/away splits in four of five roto categories are very similar.

Home: .299 - 87 HR - 303 RBI - 62 SB - 341 R

Away: .298 - 89 HR - 324 RBI - 55 SB - 273 R

Roughly 11 more runs scored - very teammate dependent stat - a year at home, otherwise pretty much of a push.

Yah Mule wrote:

ToddZ wrote: The disparity in Goldschmidt's H/A splits are larger than league average splits. He performs much better at home.

Not every player will be affected the same, but they'll all be affected.

His career home/away splits in four of five roto categories are very similar.

Home: .299 - 87 HR - 303 RBI - 62 SB - 341 R

Away: .298 - 89 HR - 324 RBI - 55 SB - 273 R

Roughly 11 more runs scored - very teammate dependent stat - a year at home, otherwise pretty much of a push.

I prefer to use rate stats for splits like this, which show the difference is more exaggerated.

The larger point is, those home counting stats, at least on paper, would have been reduced had the humidor been in place.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:I thought this was an interesting draft last night. We'll definitely talk about it on our High Stakes Fantasy Advantage show on SiriusXM tonight and compare some of the picks to our NFBC ADPs. Here's the draft board again from last night:

http://www.RTSports.com/LABR-mixed.

Here are some interesting picks in comparison to the NFBC:

Paul Goldschmidt 7th (he has been falling in the NFBC as well, but his ADP remains 3)
5 SPs in the first 18 picks (NFBC has Top 5 in first 25 picks)
Aaron Judge 23rd (ADP of 16)
Andrew Benintendi 31st (ADP of 40)
Christian Yelich 35th (ADP of 65, but moving up since his trade to Milwaukee)
Rhys Hoskins 37 (ADP of 48)
Anthony Rendon 39th (ADP of 56); went ahead of Alex Bregman, who went 40th (ADP of 31)
Billy Hamilton 51 (ADP of 60)
Yu Darvish 57 (ADP of 49)
Lorenzo Cain 74 (ADP of 90)
Jose Berrios 76 (ADP of 105)
Shohei Ohtani 83 (ADP of 72); somewhat surprisingly low since he can be used as a Hitter and Pitcher in LABR
Ozzie Albies 90th (ADP of 138)
Miguel Cabrera 112 (ADP of 88)
Luke Weaver 135 (ADP of 106)

Scott Pianowski went 13 rounds before taking a SP in Round 14. His first pitcher came in Round 12 in Andrew Miller. Very interesting strategy there.

Nothing overtly stands out from this draft, but some interesting picks nonetheless.

Thoughts?

My thoughts would be to please stop including Stephania Bell in this draft. Just another painful draft effort if you can call it that. And make this a 30 round draft with NO TRADING which pretty much makes it a home league and de-legitimizes the entire thing. The NFBC is the industry standard for this type of draft, so move it to a Main Event-type format with similar FAAB. Just my thoughts which probably don't matter. But hey, you asked.

Yah Mule wrote:Not only did Scott draft a 25 point pitching staff, that team is really slow.

Yea I can't really fathom a situation where not taking a pitcher until round 13 is optimal.

My thoughts would be to please stop including Stephania Bell in this draft. Just another painful draft effort if you can call it that. And make this a 30 round draft with NO TRADING which pretty much makes it a home league and de-legitimizes the entire thing. The NFBC is the industry standard for this type of draft, so move it to a Main Event-type format with similar FAAB. Just my thoughts which probably don't matter. But hey, you asked. [/quote]

Couldn't agree more.

Just curious Todd, Goldy just fell to me at 7 in a DC draft. I couldn't hit draft player fast enough. Is a .290 BA 30 hr 105 run and RBI and 15 st a very reasonable projection? And if so I think he could out perform that by a few in every cat. If just going off those projections doesn't that make him a top 5 player maybe top 3? Let me hear your thoughts.

Gb2715 wrote:Just curious Todd, Goldy just fell to me at 7 in a DC draft. I couldn't hit draft player fast enough. Is a .290 BA 30 hr 105 run and RBI and 15 st a very reasonable projection? And if so I think he could out perform that by a few in every cat. If just going off those projections doesn't that make him a top 5 player maybe top 3? Let me hear your thoughts.

I think the humidor should push him to the back of the first round.

ToddZ wrote:

Gb2715 wrote:Just curious Todd, Goldy just fell to me at 7 in a DC draft. I couldn't hit draft player fast enough. Is a .290 BA 30 hr 105 run and RBI and 15 st a very reasonable projection? And if so I think he could out perform that by a few in every cat. If just going off those projections doesn't that make him a top 5 player maybe top 3? Let me hear your thoughts.

I think the humidor should push him to the back of the first round.

I will take him in every league I can where he drops past 4-5

ToddZ wrote:

Gb2715 wrote:Just curious Todd, Goldy just fell to me at 7 in a DC draft. I couldn't hit draft player fast enough. Is a .290 BA 30 hr 105 run and RBI and 15 st a very reasonable projection? And if so I think he could out perform that by a few in every cat. If just going off those projections doesn't that make him a top 5 player maybe top 3? Let me hear your thoughts.

I think the humidor should push him to the back of the first round.

Besides Arizona, Goldschmidt's favorite place to hit homers last year, was the only other park that has a humidor.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:

ToddZ wrote:

Gb2715 wrote:Just curious Todd, Goldy just fell to me at 7 in a DC draft. I couldn't hit draft player fast enough. Is a .290 BA 30 hr 105 run and RBI and 15 st a very reasonable projection? And if so I think he could out perform that by a few in every cat. If just going off those projections doesn't that make him a top 5 player maybe top 3? Let me hear your thoughts.

I think the humidor should push him to the back of the first round.

Besides Arizona, Goldschmidt's favorite place to hit homers last year, was the only other park that has a humidor.

I mean the only other possibilities were Coors, ATT, Dodger Stadium and Petco because of sheer volume of at bats.

I was joking, but your point is not well-taken.
Volume of at bats does not always dictate most home runs.

Buster Posey hit as many home runs at Citi Field as he hit at ATT&T last year
Last year, Joe Panik hit 10 homers everywhere else but none at the park he played in most.
Aaron Altherr only had 16 at bats vs. Seattle, but hit four homers against them.
Outside of Yankee Stadium, Gary Sanchez had more homers at Comerica Park than any other venue.
Charlie Blackmon hit 13 homers on the road last year. Only three vs. NL West rivals.

At bats does not always rule. Just most of the time.
A players venue or a player getting hot at a venue could override the volume of at bats.
And does in more cases than thought.

a physics professor says this will have a pretty big effect. dummy me is gonna side with him. it had a big effect on homers in Colorado. run scoring stayed up because of the gaps. arizona outfield sq footage is much smaller. the only thing that always worries me- and i know this NEVER happens in baseball- is if that the d backs cheat on this.

headhunters wrote:a physics professor says this will have a pretty big effect. dummy me is gonna side with him. it had a big effect on homers in Colorado. run scoring stayed up because of the gaps. arizona outfield sq footage is much smaller. the only thing that always worries me- and i know this NEVER happens in baseball- is if that the d backs cheat on this.

Seems to me the only way Arizona could cheat is using non-humidor balls when they're at bat.

1. Have to believe the umpires control the balls, getting them in one fell swoop.

2. If the team gets the ball boy to switch them up, it's far too easy to get caught. It could happen simply by a foul ball going into the opposing dugout and noticing the different feel or eventually, the numbers would be so disparate, they'd check.

I wrote a piece for ESPN's draft kit that should drop next week -- I expect the park to play neutral for runs, with a range of 95-105. It falls to about 90 for homers.

todd- no offense- but there are a zillion things that could be done. less humidity on our balls when at bat. more on theirs. adjust depending on starter. I could go on- but you are from new England. if I wrote before a championship game that a team would be able to DEFLATE a football before a championship game that MILLIONS of $ are bet on- you and others would have the same response- all kinds of checks on it- couldn't get away with it. teams pay smart people to man computers- they would not hesitate to have some smart person figure out ways to game this- unless you think New England is the only sports team that cheats? also- if I were the mlb owners and I thought our big mouth commissioner admitted on tape a free market didn't exist I would have 1 team bite the bullet on a boras client and take one for the "team"

and please don't embarrass yourself by saying that the ball boys didn't deflate those footballs.

headhunters wrote:and please don't embarrass yourself by saying that the ball boys didn't deflate those footballs.

And there's no need to go straw man on me.