Weekly Question: Where Does Soriano Go On Draft Day?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 9:23 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

That said, I do encourage making a strategic adjustment to the raw value for a speedster, to account for the uniqueness of the category. I call this category efficiency ratings (CER). What I mean is if my cheat sheet said bid $35 on Manny Ramirez and $35 on Juan Pierre, I am more likely to go the full $35 on Ramirez, as I can strategically compete in steals without a rabbit. The SB category is distributed as such that it is efficient to earn a few points, but inefficient to compete for the top spots. why doesn't your system automatically account for this adjustment. why is it left in the hands of being subjective?

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 9:24 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

For hitters for the 2006 season, the top earner was Reyes - and by a pretty good margin over the other hitters, obviously influenced by the surprising HR and RBI from a SB/MI. Since the original question was about Soriano the top hitters for NFBC models (15 team mixed, 5X5) were:

1) Jose Reyes - $41.64

2) Albert Pujols - $37.49

3) Carl Crawford - $37.29

4) Alfonso Soriano - 37.22

Two thoughts, Perry:

1) I'm surprised that your dollar figures are this low. Elite players go for $45+ in NFBC mixed auctions -- How is it that the breakout production of Pujols, Crawford and Soriano isn't worth more than $38? (Stated more precisely, didn't these guys "earn" more than $38?)

2) My valuation system looks at standing points added over replacement player -- a variation on ESPN's Player Rater. By my calculations, Reyes is barely #1 among hitters, with Soriano, Pujols & Howard closely behind (in that order). However, if you pro-rate Pujols' numbers to account for the 13 games he missed while on the DL, Pujols jumps to the head of the pack by a significant margin. FWIW, Crawford is 6th among hitters using this valuation system. I suppose I don't really have a question here, just a comment that reasonable people can come up with significantly different conclusions using the same fixed data. [/QUOTE]1)These aren't auction prices which should be and always are higher for the top producers

2) They aren't projections for 2007 and suggested prices.

3) These are actual dollars earned for a 15 team, 5X5 mixed league for 2006 stats

4) If wishes and buts were candies and nuts...no makeup for Pujols missed games - actual results - will he earn more in 2007 if he plays the whole year - sure

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 9:34 am

1) I'm surprised that your dollar figures are this low. Elite players go for $45+ in NFBC mixed auctions -- How is it that the breakout production of Pujols, Crawford and Soriano isn't worth more than $38? (Stated more precisely, didn't these guys "earn" more than $38?) I'll embellish a little since I run the values for the site....

I think everyone realizes what one is willing to pay in an auction and what one earns is not necessarily the same, especially in a 15-team league where the pool is still shallow enough that a stars and scrubs strategy is quite viable.

Obviously, the real question is "didn't these guys "earn" more than $38?"

The answer is, according to our value system, the answer is no, they earned exactly what Perry posted.

My system is basically the following. Each player gets awarded value based on the percentage of useful stats he contributes to that category. For the purposes of end-of-year valuation, every category is weighted equally. This may not be the case when I determine bid values or make up draft lists, but that is a story for a different day. Anyway, I define a useful stat as that over replacement value at his position. There is no perfect definition of replacement value, so two people using this exact system could actually end up with different values, but that's OK, it allows for league customization as well, as some leagues draft categories like SB and saves differently.

I don't know what I would have had Pujols at if he had played a full season. I'll plug that into my template at home later tonight and report back.

[ November 22, 2006, 03:35 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 9:42 am

why doesn't your system automatically account for this adjustment. why is it left in the hands of being subjective? Actually, it does. I will weight categories differently when coming up with bid values. The Manny-Pierre example was more for entertainment purposes only. When I run CER values, Pierre would drop to maybe 30 and Manny would go to maybe 38, based on the hypothetical 35 I used. Perhaps it is better to say a slugger earning 35 would come out to 38 with my CER system, while a speedster earning 35 would have a bid value closer to 30. In a nutshell, I shunt some SB$ to HR$. The amount is not arbitrary, but the exact amount is beyond the scope I am willing to go into here.

That said, auction ebb and flow still dictates subjective adjustments.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 11:44 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Though, I can't see how you can have two guys tied. Mine goes to the tenth decimal place. bjoak,

Forecasting calls for putting specificity in context of likely error IMO; when approximating something it isn't worthwhile to assign meaning to differences so slight that it will be overwhelmed by likely error. That's why I have lots of ties in my model, all players are rounded to the dollar. [/QUOTE]Er, we weren't forecasting. We were evaluating precise numbers from last season.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 11:57 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Though, I can't see how you can have two guys tied. Mine goes to the tenth decimal place. bjoak,

Forecasting calls for putting specificity in context of likely error IMO; when approximating something it isn't worthwhile to assign meaning to differences so slight that it will be overwhelmed by likely error. That's why I have lots of ties in my model, all players are rounded to the dollar. [/QUOTE]Er, we weren't forecasting. We were evaluating precise numbers from last season. [/QUOTE]ya got me! good point bjoak - I just plugged last yr's stats into my forecasting model

Removing the rounding formula from my calculation I get this:

Pujols $41.44

Reyes $40.90

Mr Dalrae · Post by **Mr Dalrae** » Thu Nov 23, 2006 2:09 am

A small point that may help Soriano improve on his stats(especially his bat avg)is that the Cubs new hitting coach is Gerald Perry.During his 3 yrs with Lou P.in Seattle the M's led the majors in on base%and walks and led the AL in batting and runs.Last year he was with the A's who were 2nd in the AL in walks.So if Perry and Lou can help Soriano improve his plate coverage even a little I think his stats will also.I think coming to Wrigley is a another plus,short power alleys and if the weather is warm or hot this summer with the wind blowing out alot more than in who knows where his totals could go.Right now I have Soriano Rated at #2 in the draft.On draft day he will be rated between #2-#5.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 23, 2006 11:19 pm

Originally posted by Mr Dalrae:

A small point that may help Soriano improve on his stats(especially his bat avg)is that the Cubs new hitting coach is Gerald Perry.But will Gerald Perry be able to teach Soriano how to grimace each time he takes a hard swing like Perry used to do when in Atlanta! He used to show more teeth than my wife grabbing the last item on sale at an After-Thanksgiving Sale.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 23, 2006 11:33 pm

Greg had asked the question of who would replace Soriano at #2 with all of us nay-sayers complaining about what we view as the mercurial nature of his talent. I guess it all depends on which categories you want to build on if you have one of the top five picks with 20+ players going to be off the board before you bolo around for your next selections. Soriano is not my number two because one of those categories I definitely want to have is BA. Is BA more important than the other four, no. But I feel there are more opportunities to build the speed (R, 10+ SB) players or power (RBI, HR, R) later in the draft from players with weaker BA. The players later in the draft with the better BA are generally one dimensional to me (i.e. give you decent BA, but do not help in other categories).

As I posted earlier, Soriano has not had a .280+ BA since 2003. His .277 last year was not bad, but .265 to .275, which is a generous range for him, doesn't look so good if his numbers drop to 30/30. We are talking a matter of degree here as he is clearly top 5 or 6, so I am not trashing him, just saying that given the choice, give me a power hitter on the upswing at number 2 like Howard (say he hits only 90% of his 2006 number in HR...52 HR anyone?), a future Hall of Famer in a power line-up who is coming off an "off year" like ARod, and maybe the guy who has the great BA and will so dominate a category as to allow me to simplify my draft in the later rounds while not killing me in the others (Crawford, Reyes).

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:33 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

As I posted earlier, Soriano has not had a .280+ BA since 2003. His .277 last year was not bad, but .265 to .275, which is a generous range for him, doesn't look so good if his numbers drop to 30/30.Don't mean to nitpick, Wayne, but that BA range is anything but generous. Soriano's worst BA in six full seasons is .268, and his career average is .280. I'm not expecting .300 from Soriano, but I'm also not expecting .265.

In six full seasons, Soriano has only had one "off" year -- 2004. But he's also had two Fantasy MVP-type years (2002 & 2006), and his other seasons have been elite 280-37-33 type performances. I think it's entirely reasonable to set 280-37-33 as a median expectation, with the obvious understanding that he could explode (a la 2002 & 2006) or crash (2004).

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:49 am

You make good points. Maybe I am trying to justify my own uncertainty about Soriano. However, the .280 career average is propped up by some early career numbers.

I was a naysayer last year and look where that got me. Soriano is a star ballplayer who will be a top five pick. I don't think I will take him because of a gut feel...kind of the same feeling I get when trying to decide whether or not to go all in down to two-handed in a Hold'Em tourney...with a pair of sixes!

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:35 pm

I think Soriano will be vastly overrated come draft day.

I compare it to when Beltran came over to the Mets. Every single publication said he should be top 5 and he ended up taking a dump.

The fact that Soriano no longer has 2b eligibility is a huge stinger. I would take Utley over Soriano any day of the week.

Take that to the bank.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sun Nov 26, 2006 11:53 am

Positives: Soriano now hits in a better ballpark, better lineup.

Negatives: I question whether he is 31, are you telling me he was really 16 years old playing in Japan? C'mon, can somebody show me an authentic birth certificate, PLEASE!

He is no longer in a contract year and the amount of pressure with that contract usually ends up hurting players as opposed to helping.

He, in my humble opinion will not be the MAN on the Cubs, Lee or Ramirez could very well be bigger contributors, I'm curious how that affects him.

History suggests that he could very well come down to his yearly averages of 28 homers and 30 steals.

He is no longer 2b eligible, which is a HUGE downer in my book. I think it affects his value tremendously, and it's not talked about enough.

Another reason not to pick him too high is the fact you must take him top 3 to ensure you get him, and I really don't think at that spot you are getting value.

I'll say it now, the most overhyped player in the draft, I wouldn't touch him in the first 10 picks.

My predictiion: 30/30 with a .260 average and 110 runs.

Certainly worthy of a late 1st round/early 2nd round, but based on my assessment, he should not be taken in the top 5.

I said if before and I'll say it again, if you held a gun to my head, I still wouldn't take Soriano ahead of Chase Utley.

He sounds more like a

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Sun Nov 26, 2006 5:49 pm

how can ramirez and lee being good hurt a lead off man? that is like saying that jeter and damen are hurt because they have 4 guys behind them that are great. soriano will either hit 40 and steal 40- generating his own value- or he won't. as far as value is concerned- when you go top 5 it is hard to "earn your value" if it means that you have to be top 5 at the end of year. of top 5 picks in 06- i think only albert earned his value- if you go by that bench mark.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sun Nov 26, 2006 9:12 pm

Let me clear that up. In Washington he was the MAN, now that he's coming over to the Cubs who currently have 2 monster players, it may hurt his psychy a little bit. I could be wrong and so be it, but there are far too many signs that his numbers will look nothing like they did in 2006. I've seen many players over the years get overhyped and Soriano is no exception. It's funny how much he was underhyped last year, he has a big year and then WHAMMO, everybody thinks he's gonna do that every year.

Granted, I did trade Figgins/Swisher for Soriano in May last year, which helped me tremendously. I certainly didn't think he would do that well.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Mon Nov 27, 2006 2:07 am

Sounds like your a contrarian. I do like that. If everybody turns right here you turn left. I do the same thing with investments and it works pretty well. I still like Soriano though. Not in love with him, but if I had the second pick today, I would take him. Join our mock draft for bjoak as suggested it's fun and good practice.

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Mon Nov 27, 2006 3:57 am

C'mon Greg, this one is way too easy. You are looking at this years version of Pujols/Arod from 2006. Soriano has the power/speed combo that drive success in our games. He becomes a no-brainer as a 1-2-3 selection in 2006. However, last year was his "value" play season as he was playing in what appeared to be a negative park while playing for a contract. Will he still be as motivated? Can he avoid injury? One of the BEST things I learned from playing in the Mid-season NFBC Satellite leagues ( yes, shameless plug ) was that some of the sharper players had given me a preview of the 2007 March drafts by choosing Soriano with the top three picks. Concluding the Serpentine discussion, I wouldn't shy away if I land a 1-2-3 spot. The Auctions are a differnet beast. Placing a price on him this far out for both formats would START at $40. Something tells me he'll go higher that the price listed. If you are at the table, make sure the person that claims him pays the price.