Todd Zola Live Chat On Thursday At 3 pm ET

[Greg Ambrosius]

Todd Zola of Mastersball.com will be our first industry guest for a Live Chat on the NFBC Message Boards. You can post your questions in advance right here and Todd will either answer them in advance or have them ready by Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, join us here on Thursday for a fun and interactive conversation on the boards.

And I'm sure Todd is in a good mood right now after his beloved Patriots won their 4th Super Bowl, joining the likes of the Green Bay Packers with 4 Lombardi trophies. Feel free to ask Todd if he thought the decision to pass the ball from the 1-yard line was a good one or not because he knows his x's and o's in that sport as well. Thanks all.

Enjoy and thanks Todd for jumping in on the Live Chat. I'm looking for some great numbers answers!!!

[ToddZ]

And I'm sure Todd is in a good mood right now after his beloved Patriots won their 4th Super Bowl, joining the likes of the Green Bay Packers with 4 Lombardi trophies. Feel free to ask Todd if he thought the decision to pass the ball from the 1-yard line was a good one or not because he knows his x's and o's in that sport as well.

Nice gratuitous Packer plug!

Watching the parade now, then I'll start doing my finger exercises so I'll be good to go tomorrow.

As usual, I'll hit the thread as much as I can before 3 PM ET tomorrow then continue to check it out for a few days.

[slopshot]

What is your feel on Matt Cain this season ?

[Doctor Who]

Todd, are you planning on running some strategy articles on your site?

This year, your second true love is Calhoun. Have you already gotten over your first love, Trumbo? Or do you still have feelings for him still even for this year? Or did you, as George Costanza heard from Jerry, just rip the bandaid off and get off the bandwagon?

[ToddZ]

What is your feel on Matt Cain this season ?

It's a crystal ball question - no one really knows. For years he was able to defy analysis and minimize HR despite being a fly ball pitcher. In 2013, regression caught up. The thin margin of error he was working with could be gone.

Something to keep in mind is his K-rate was mediocre - he got a lot of whiffs from volume, throwing a ton of innings. That's probably not going to happen, at least not this season.

He's definitely worth speculating on since he's protected by AT&T half the time, but he's not someone I'm chasing, expecting a bounce-back campaign on the cheap.

[ToddZ]

Todd, are you planning on running some strategy articles on your site?

Yeah, planning on knocking off profiles this weekend then I'll start adding to our subscription strategy archive. Beginning tomorrow (Thursday), I'll resume my column (twice a week) on www.FantasyAlarm.com

This year, your second true love is Calhoun. Have you already gotten over your first love, Trumbo? Or do you still have feelings for him still even for this year? Or did you, as George Costanza heard from Jerry, just rip the bandaid off and get off the bandwagon?

I still like Trumbo in the desert but my enthusiasm is tempered via playing time concerns. He REALLY needs Tomas to stick at third. If Tomas has to play outfield then Peralta and Inciarte are both a threat to Trumbo (not to mention Cody Ross). I already expect Trumbo to be removed for defense when appropriate which could already cost him 20-30 PA.

[swampass]

Hey Todd, thanks for taking the time.

Was wondering your thoughts on players who switch leagues. Is there any data that says a player will do better moving from one league to the either? Some interesting names are on the list this year. Thoughts?

Hanley Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval
Adam Laroche
Nick Markakis
Jon Lester
Max Scherzer

Also would you care to speculate on who gets saves in Toronto, NYY, Houston, and SF?

Thanks

[ToddZ]

Hey Todd, thanks for taking the time.

Was wondering your thoughts on players who switch leagues. Is there any data that says a player will do better moving from one league to the either? Some interesting names are on the list this year. Thoughts?

There's no real pattern to hitters. Pitchers, as expected, improve going to the NL and decline going to the AL -- but that's globally. The extent is different for each pitcher.

Hanley Ramirez - health biggest key. Ortiz like a father-figure so I don't expect any shenanigans

Pablo Sandoval - don't expect power to go up but average could really benefit from wall and big right field

Adam Laroche - huge park improvement, need to see how he reacts to mostly DH

Nick Markakis - bad park, bad lineup, blech

Jon Lester - everyone seems to forget that this time last year Homer Bailey was being drafted before Lester. NL should help maintain elevated K-rate but I still see him as SP2/SP3 and not an ace

Max Scherzer - don't expect a huge K jump, not like he had too many issues whiffing the DH in the AL. Still top-5, could lead the league in punch outs.

Also would you care to speculate on who gets saves in ...

Toronto - expect someone to be brought in. Estrada darkhorse.

NYY - Betances main guy but Miller could get some 2 inning saves and a few others

Houston - I suspect they'll look for a reason to give it to Gregerson but Qualls will be given shot

SF - hard to strip Casilla after closing for the champs but regression will catch up and Romo will usurp

[Edwards Kings]

Lord Zola, master of Numerish, polish thy crystal ball...best bounce-back candidate?

Chris "Honestly it was a Perscription" Davis
Pedro "Iron-Glove" Alvarez
Ryan "Bionic Shoulder" Zimmerman
Joey "Doughboy Love Child" Votto
Kendrys "Spring Training Posterchild" Morales
Jedd "Who are all these new Outfielders" Gyorko

[southpaw23]

Who would you rather draft and why...

Arenado or Seager?
Rusney Castillo or Soler?
Stroman or Wacha?
Fiers or McHugh?
Leonys Martin or Gardner?

And your favorite mid to late round catcher to out perform their ranking?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Todd, last year the defensive shift really messed with some hitters' heads and lowered their batting averages in a big way. Carlos Santana saw his average drop 37 points despite the fact that he hit 7 more HRs and walked 20 more times. He hit just .209 against the shift. Chris Davis hit just .192 against the shift, which was used against him 401 times, while Jay Bruce hit .181 against the shift. Lots of guys struggled with this defensive change.

Now for the question: Do you see these same left-handed hitters being affected by the shift and maybe even affected more as teams use them for almost every one of their at-bats? And who else could be affected by the shift this year? Or when you project numbers for 2015, is this not even a consideration to what could happen the next year for these left-handed pull-hitters?

[ToddZ]

Lord Zola, master of Numerish, polish thy crystal ball...best bounce-back candidate?

Chris "Honestly it was a Perscription" Davis
Pedro "Iron-Glove" Alvarez
Ryan "Bionic Shoulder" Zimmerman
Joey "Doughboy Love Child" Votto
Kendrys "Spring Training Posterchild" Morales
Jedd "Who are all these new Outfielders" Gyorko

I like Davis a bit, especially if you can slot him at CI making the escape plan a little easier. Everyone called the 54 HR season and the ensuing first round ADP a fluke but the guy did hit 35 bombs the season before knocking 54.

I also like Gyorko relative to what it costs to find out if he can get the power stroke going.

I'm not going to own him in every league, but I'm pretty sure I'm going to gamble on Votto altering his approach. I'm not predicting he'll do it, nor do I expect that he do it. But it's possible that he does it and I'd like a share since the potential windfall is pretty big considering where the market is pricing Votto.

[ToddZ]

Who would you rather draft and why...

Arenado or Seager? - Seager since Arenado still has that new car smell and is being drafted for the promise. Seager is already there. Plus, Arenado's main advantage is batting average and in today's climate, I prefer counting stats over average, especially in the range they're being drafted.

Rusney Castillo or Soler? Small hedge hear as I like both and feel both will succeed. In a vacuum I like Castillo more unless I really need power -- and at the point they're drafted I don't think you really NEED anything. So I guess that means Castillo.

Stroman or Wacha? Is there a none of the above? Reason being there's some risk with both and I like some other arms better in their tier. Wacha isn't out of the woods with respect to injury and still hasn't proven he can throw 180+ innings, let alone the 200 of an ace. Stroman's track record is limited and I like having the parachute of a nice pitcher's park in case I need to play match-ups. I suppose I'll take Wacha, hoping for health and prepare to deal with a few less innings. I can envision playing head games with Stroman -- start or reserve -- and always getting it wrong.

Fiers or McHugh? Durability is an issue but I'll take Fiers. I'm likely not starting either every week and I like whiffs from my streamers and prefer Fiers in that regard.

Leonys Martin or Gardner? Martin. Similar profiles, I'll take the younger version with a higher ceiling.

And your favorite mid to late round catcher to out perform their ranking?

This is interesting since I like the early portion of the catcher pool, loathe the middle but really like several late, late picks that I think can emerge.

Mid rounds I do like Travis d'Arnaud but he's not going for a discount in the NFBC. So let's say Russell Martin, especially if he hits second as has been reported.

Late I really like James McCann, Michael McKenry and Caleb Joseph.

Avila is one errant file tip away from another concussion and the end of his time catching. Plus, there's already talk of Avila playing 1B until Miggy is ready which also suggests he could fill in at time during the season. This opens up time behind the dish for McCann.

Everyone assumes Hundley is the main man in Colorado but McKenry is a better hitter and defender.

Wieters may not be ready opening day plus I see him with more DH at bats, clearing time for Joseph.

One more - Rene Rivera could pop a few out of The Trop.

[ToddZ]

Now for the question: Do you see these same left-handed hitters being affected by the shift and maybe even affected more as teams use them for almost every one of their at-bats? And who else could be affected by the shift this year? Or when you project numbers for 2015, is this not even a consideration to what could happen the next year for these left-handed pull-hitters?

Big-picture, the shift has had some impact on the league, depending on how and who is doing the judging. It has saved net runs according to Inside Edge and Baseball Info Solutions. BABIP actually went in 2014. If there's one metric that should measure if the shift is effective, it's BABIP.

That said, there's no doubt it has affected individual players (add David Ortiz and Mark Teixeira to the list).

The problem is we don't know if

-the shift is the sole reason for the drop in production
-bad luck was the issue and if it will regress
-the hitter will make adjustments
-more teams will use it

I don't think you can use 2014 alone as the expectation and I don't think you can ignore it either. This is the beauty of using a weighted average as the foundation for your projection/expectation. Most systems favor recent performance (usually 50 to 60 percent of the baseline is the previous season). This pretty much does the work for you -- allowing for all possible scenarios.

But a projection is just a number. The responsibility of the drafter is to use the expectation as a starting point then season to taste according to team needs, risk profile, etc.

Remember when all we had was BABIP -- not the hit distribution (LD/FB/GB) comprising it? That's where we are now with the shift -- the actual player data is not readily available which makes this even tougher.

So I guess the short answer is I let the weighted average do the work then make a subjective decision on a player-by-player basis - according to team needs/construct etc.

[ikenbaseball]

1. What's your position on Justin Verlander. Right now he's sitting around ADP round 13? Still a stud or now a dud?

2. Is Javier Baez on a short leash or are the Cubs going to roll with him good or bad this year. Over or under 30HRs?

3. If your the Sox GM would you trade Hamels for Betts straight up?


Thanks

Krys

[Bronx Yankees]

Todd - Two surprise performers from last year were Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco. In many NFBC drafts, they seem to be going in Rounds 7-9 or so, being priced as low SP2s or high SP3s. Do you think one or both of these guys has found "it" and will continue on the upswing, or are they one-hit wonders whose downside risk now outweighs the upside gain at these prices? Thanks for your thoughts.

Mike

[ToddZ]

1. What's your position on Justin Verlander. Right now he's sitting around ADP round 13? Still a stud or now a dud?

More dud than stud but if there's anyone that can make some adjustments and learn how to get it done topping out at 95, he's it. I'm not going to pay to find out.

2. Is Javier Baez on a short leash or are the Cubs going to roll with him good or bad this year. Over or under 30HRs?

I don't think it's short but I don't think it's endless either. Alcantara is an awful nice security blanket so if Baez is whiffing, it wouldn't be shocking to see Baez head to the farm. I'll take the under on 30 HR.

3. If your the Sox GM would you trade Hamels for Betts straight up?

Yes, in a freaking heartbeat and I think they would too but they're asking for a lot more.

[ToddZ]

Todd - Two surprise performers from last year were Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco. In many NFBC drafts, they seem to be going in Rounds 7-9 or so, being priced as low SP2s or high SP3s. Do you think one or both of these guys has found "it" and will continue on the upswing, or are they one-hit wonders whose downside risk now outweighs the upside gain at these prices? Thanks for your thoughts.

Mike

I don't think there's any more upside to Arrieta, It's more a matter of how much of the gains he maintains. I think he has figured a few things out and I'll take him as my SP3 for sure.

Carrasco is a little different in that we're basing all this off a 9-game sample. I see his ceiling higher and floor lower than Arrieta. Taking him for me depends on my SP1 and SP2 and if I need Carrasco's ceiling or Arrieta's floor. There's still a bunch of questions, mostly can he keep it up for 30+ starts?

[Floyd]

Hey Todd.

First, congrats on your wins from last year!

As a Mastersball customer, I'm curious, when is your next round of player projection updates? And how do you recommend a customer keep track of updates after downloading (i.e. how do I know when you've updated a particular player's projection)?

Thanks and good luck this year.

[Navel Lint]

I haven't signed up for any drafts yet, so I don't know what his current ADP is, but what are your thoughts on Collin McHugh -HOU. Will he be a bust or bargain relative to his ADP?

[Navel Lint]

Wade Boggs famously liked to eat chicken before each game. Do you have any superstitions or rituals that you complete before every draft?

[ToddZ]

Hey Todd.

First, congrats on your wins from last year!

Thanks, but that would be win, singular. Fortunately it was a biggie. Honestly, I had a crap year in general. I think I know why. We'll see if I'm right come October.

As a Mastersball customer, I'm curious, when is your next round of player projection updates? And how do you recommend a customer keep track of updates after downloading (i.e. how do I know when you've updated a particular player's projection)?

This week the update will be tomorrow but going forward, they'll be every Thursday.

I always post on the site when projections are updated and almost always send out a Tweet and Facebook note. I often send a newsletter. I need to be careful with the newsletter since too many gets us on some SPAM lists. Going forward, I'll change almost always to always for Social media notification.

[ToddZ]

I haven't signed up for any drafts yet, so I don't know what his current ADP is, but what are your thoughts on Collin McHugh -HOU. Will he be a bust or bargain relative to his ADP?

I've done a buttload of drafts and don't know his ADP either -- because I really don't care. I care how he'll do relative to the draft spot where I take him.

Here's his profile from my subscription service:

Sometimes things just click with no warning. Such is the case for McHugh, especially in terms of strikeout rate. Largely due to improved secondary offerings, McHugh amped up his whiffs to better than one an inning while simultaneously keeping his control in check. Some of this was due to a lucky BABIP which limited base runners and kept McHugh working from the more comfortable wind-up. The safe play is to expect regression but there's really no telling how far his skills will fall (if at all). McHugh is more alluring in AL only but he has a place on a mixed staff assuming you can reserve him for tougher match-ups. Regression or not, you can't fake a 9.1 K/9 - there's something here.

Translation -- I'll be fine with McHugh as a low end SP4 or SP5.

[Edwards Kings]

Victor Martinez just tore his meniscus. Does that move him down on your draft board?

[ikenbaseball]

1. What's your position on Justin Verlander. Right now he's sitting around ADP round 13? Still a stud or now a dud?

More dud than stud but if there's anyone that can make some adjustments and learn how to get it done topping out at 95, he's it. I'm not going to pay to find out.


BUT he's in the best shape of his life......

Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander said Thursday this is the best he's felt physically approaching the start of spring training in at least three years. Verlander dealt with some shoulder issues in 2014 after undergoing core muscle surgery near his left hip last offseason.
"I've added 20 pounds of muscle," he said, per the Detroit Free Press. "I busted my butt in the weight room. And my pitching motion already feels a lot more fluid now than it did a year ago. It was great having an uninterrupted offseason of training and conditioning. At this same time a year ago, I was barely a few days removed from having (core muscle) surgery."