Money wrote:
OK, If you're still open for business how about breaking down the 3 closer / reliever types being converted to starting pitchers.
Feliz
Sale
Bard
Thanks.
Full disclosure here -- this sort of analysis is not my strong suit. In fact, the disclosure may be better advice than the ensuing breakdown. We really do not know how the numbers as a reliever will translate to starting. I think this is an example of where seeing these guys pitch, especially if you are trained from a scouting perspective, can be better than looking at the peripherals and assuming a certain decline based on starting. That is, being more in tune with what pitches a guy throws and how good his other pitches are, the ones he put in his back pocket when he converted to relief are more helpful than translating reliever K/9 into starting K/9, for example.
So personally, I feel from a game theory perspective, the fantasy owner should play to his strength to cover a weakness. I feel as though I can see through some of the (I know, it's cliche, but it's true) luck aspects of pitchers with a track record, so I will not be touching any of the above guys, but instead look for the arms that should be better than last year's surface stats suggest.
With that as a backdrop....
FELIZ - Texas showed with Ogando that they will coddle him a bit in terms of innings (extra day, skipping starts, more time around the ASB, etc) to monitor his workload, ironically using Ogando to spot start. My concern with Feliz is two-fold. First, I know he appeared healthy, but smoke usually equals fire and there was something mysterious going on last spring with the first time he was stretched out. I'm just concerned of an injury. Second, he needs another pitch, probably a curve, to get through the order 3 or 4 times.
SALE - peripherals as a reliever are off the charts, so it is extra hard to figure out how that translates as a starter. I'm also concerned he never really worked as a starter in the minors, coming right out of college to debut with Chicago the same year. He will also throw fewer innings which lowers strikeouts and the impact of ratios. He will also not go very far into games since he get so many BB and K. I like that he is a GB guy, but don't like that he throws so many sliders. Seems to me he will need to throw fewer to prevent an injury and his slider is what makes him so effective.
BARD - I'm still not convinced he actually makes the transition. If Boston acquires another starter (Oswalt, Wandy) then I think he goes back to the 8th inning role and the Red Sox look to make it a 6 inning game with Melancon/Bard/Bailey. Having seen Bard, he throws hard, but it does not appear to be with a great deal of movement, so the second and third time through, hitters could get their timing down and square upon his heater. Pitching coach Bob McClure has been known to use relievers as starters in the spring to get them more work on secondary pitches, so even if Bard begins ST starting, I will still not be convinced.
