Live Chat With Greg and Tom Wednesday At 3 PM ET

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:57 am

Okay, the world is all good again. The Green Bay Packers have returned the Lombardi Trophy to Titletown, U.S.A. and Packer fans have a new hero again. Brett who?

Wow, I think Aaron Rodgers is more admired now than Brett ever was during his three MVP years and two Super Bowl years. The adulation is over the top right now.

Anyway, it's been a helluva run here in the Frozen Tundra. The Wisconsin Badgers made it to the Rose Bowl. The Packers had the most improbable playoff run in NFL history. The NFBC is on solid ground and moving forward. And pitchers and catchers report late next week. Oh, and winter only has like 18 more weeks to go!!!

At least that's what it feels like.

Tom and myself are about as out-of-touch with baseball right now as we've ever been. Dammit, I'm getting those magazines back and we're going to produce Fantasy Sports Magazine again if it kills us. I miss not working on a preview magazine. And I wish we had that vehicle to drive new signups and to showcase last year's winners. Have no fear 2010 NFBC winners, we'll find a way to get you in print down the road. At least I hope so.

Okay, it's time to talk baseball and maybe a little NFBC.

Tom and I will be live tomorrow starting at 3 pm ET and we'll take your questions ahead of time and try to answer them as we go. Then I'll try to line up some industry guests like Lord Zola, guys from BaseballHQ.com, Mr. Childs, and others to fill up the time until we start seeing games on the garden again. Let's do it.

Post your questions here and then let's meet tomorrow at 3 pm ET. Thanks all.

Doctor Who · Post by **Doctor Who** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:13 am

I'll start the preview for your questions tommorrow.

What do you think is the best strategy for auction leagues?

What are the stats needed to win first place in the NFBC classic and the NFBC auction leagues?

crazytown · Post by **crazytown** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:07 am

Who is the #1 catcher this year. How much will it take to secure him in the auction championship. Keeping in mind that Mauer went for a whopping $35 in last years NYC auction.

Thanks

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:00 pm

What is the secret of FAAB? What do you look for? How do you determine how much to spend for a player? Do you go into a league with the intention of saving FAAB money for later in the year, or just play it by ear depending on your needs? I'll take any other advice you can add.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:14 pm

Serious question....

I would have to think in the past few weeks you got a reminder in a not so subtle way of how great of a job you have. In one or two sentences what do you think makes the NFBC so great?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:17 pm

rank these SP...

1. j. hellickson

2. j. vazquez

3. p. hughes

4. r. romero

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:20 pm

more HR this year, AROD or J.Bautista

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:21 pm

last year i bit hard on sandoval. i took him in the 2nd round of a few drafts (including a main event). prior to last year, his skills looked elite (at least to me). what's your thoughts on him for this year?

MadCow Sez · Post by **MadCow Sez** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:15 pm

First 3 closers to lose the jobs....first 3 FAAB closer candidates?

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:56 pm

Who has the better year from these pairings:

Carlos Santana or Buster Posey?

Billy Butler or Gaby Sanchez?

Neil Walker or Gordon Beckham?

Mark Reynolds or Pedro Alvarez?

Derek Jeter or Elvis Andrus?

BJ Upton or Drew Stubbs?

Grady Sizemore or Colby Rasmus?

Brandon Morrow or Brett Anderson?

Jordan Zimmerman or Brian Matusz?

Chris Perez or John Axford?

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Tue Feb 08, 2011 4:59 pm

Sorry if I missed this posting in another thread:

1.When will KDS be announced for those signed up in the $150 slow drafts?

2.You mentioned in your last chat about Gallardo going later in some of the early drafts than expected. Any batters slipping to far in your eyes?

3. Most important question of the 3!! ... were you able to attend any of the festivities at and around Lambeau late Tuesday afternoon???!! I read there were 56,000 fans that attended. Congrats Pack! Superbowl champions.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 2:38 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Serious question....

I would have to think in the past few weeks you got a reminder in a not so subtle way of how great of a job you have. In one or two sentences what do you think makes the NFBC so great? This is an easy one to answer and a good question to boot:

1. Community

2. Technology

3. Customer service

4. Leadership

1. Community: It might sound corny, but this has almost become a second family to some of us. The camaraderie during good times and bad can't be matched outside of this group of relative strangers. We have a common love -- baseball and the competition it brings -- and through that we learn about family, work, problems, etc. To lose the NFBC would be to lose more than just a baseball contest and I think we all now realize that. Other contests have better ROI and I understand why some folks are chasing the money, but without a community it's just chasing money.

2. Technology. Without the very best back-end software and continued technological upgrades, this game doesn't succeed. I know that more than ever now and that's why my next announcement will address this. Tom and I are computer illiterate and we need help on really the most important part of this contest: Running the stats and registrations and payments and payouts to the best of its ability. With Live Standings and other neat back-end features, it makes the game more fun while hopefully making your daily decisions more enjoyable as well.

3. Customer Service. We've never lost sight of the fact that the customer is always right and we realize that at these price levels our customers deserve a little more attention. Sometimes folks take this over the top, but we always try to be available for our customers and help them every step of the way. That will never change and I think it will always be a top priority of ours. In fact, I think last year was our best year in this department and we'll carry it forward for sure.

4. Leadership. There has to be one voice. One message. One vision for the future. I think we had too many voices last year. Going forward, the ownership will be set up so that we have one common voice and one common message for our participants with one clear vision. The buck will stop here and whether you agree or disagree with my decisions there won't be any confusion going forward on who is making every single call. That's the way it was for the first six years even though internally we had to fight to get some of our decisions approved. Going forward, I don't see that being much of a problem.

I hope this helps and thanks again.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 2:49 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Sorry if I missed this posting in another thread:

1.When will KDS be announced for those signed up in the $150 slow drafts?

2.You mentioned in your last chat about Gallardo going later in some of the early drafts than expected. Any batters slipping to far in your eyes?

3. Most important question of the 3!! ... were you able to attend any of the festivities at and around Lambeau late Tuesday afternoon???!! I read there were 56,000 fans that attended. Congrats Pack! Superbowl champions. Rich, GO PACK GO!!

Wow, what a season man. Just an unbelievable run from Christmas on. Awesome.

I'll go backwards: 3. I didn't go yesterday, but yes they sold out Lambeau Field and people were tailgating and having fun all day long. 35,000 people met the Packers on Monday when they landed at the airport and they had a body of fans all the way to Lambeau Field. Yesterday tickets to the celebration at Lambeau cost $5 each with all money going to charity and StubHub had scalpers selling them for $150 each. The atmosphere up here is more over the top now than it was in 1996, which is crazy. That year Favre led us to our first Super Bowl win in 29 years and this is only 14 years after the last one, but the Rodgers love affair has this thing way over the top.

I went to six home regular season games and two pre-season games, so I definitely had a full season at Lambeau Field. Myself and my brother-in-law Dennis attended every game together and we were wild for those last two games against the Giants and Bears. That was playoff atmosphere man. It's funny, we had to order our playoff tickets ahead of time and we got those and never hosted a home playoff game but still won the Super Bowl. Maybe I'll keep those as collector items!!

1. KDS will be announced shortly for those $150 Slow Drafts.

2. I'll answer this one throughout the day. I need to dive into those Slow Draft results big-time today.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:17 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

more HR this year, AROD or J.Bautista As you know, I took the Cage Match debate with Lord Zola in Arizona over whether Bautista would hit over 35 home runs this year or under. I took the under. When Todd picked me up at the airport, we also grabbed a Toronto scout (Crosby) there and during the ride to the first AFL game we told him about our upcoming debate. He immediately said he would take the under!!!

Todd knew he had no chance in this debate at that point.

After looking at all the data from last year and figuring in his good health, splits and the rest, I said that 2011 looks like more of a .250-30-85-6 season to me for Bautista. A-Rod should stay healthier this year and top 35 HRs in 2011. Heck, he's hit 35, 30, and 30 the last three years while missing a total of 87 games. Take A-Rod in this debate.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:22 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

What is the secret of FAAB? What do you look for? How do you determine how much to spend for a player? Do you go into a league with the intention of saving FAAB money for later in the year, or just play it by ear depending on your needs? I'll take any other advice you can add. The secret of FAAB is to have enough for 26 weeks to always have the ability to compete for players you need to fill holes in the future. Plain and simple. When you take yourself out of the running for players later in the season I really don't believe you have a chance to win a league title. Those later pickups can be the difference between first place and fourth place.

There is no single strategy to perfect this part of the game, other than to be smart early. Every league is different and thus you really can't read your leaguemates until a few FAAB weeks have gone by. That's why I think you have to be somewhat aggressive early but not so aggressive that you leave yourself with so little money that you are unable to compete for free agents for a long stretch of time. If you're waiting for others to spend their money to get back into the FAAB game, you may never be back.

I've said it before but the FAAB grinders seem to be the most consistent winners in the NFBC. They are picking up key free agents one or two weeks before the rest of the pack, looking ahead and planning for the "what ifs" that always seem to come. Two guys especially come to mind here. I think they might miss with some of their pickups more often than they hit, but they are always thinking ahead with the pickups and rolling in guys before they get that closer's role or starting infield job, etc. Planning ahead saves money and likely allows you to win the FAAB game, but that's easier said than done.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:30 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

more HR this year, AROD or J.Bautista ARod. Bautista strikes me as the classic example of an anomaly season. I don't expect him to come near that total again. And even though ARod had a down season by his standards he still hit 30 home runs. He's the superior talent and I would expect him to prove it.

Don M · Post by **Don M** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:31 am

Where will our on line drafts be held and if on our site when will we be able to practice?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:32 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

last year i bit hard on sandoval. i took him in the 2nd round of a few drafts (including a main event). prior to last year, his skills looked elite (at least to me). what's your thoughts on him for this year? I was on the Sirius show last week with the lovely Kay Adams (and I think a couple other people too) and talked about how I like Sandoval as a bounceback candidate. He definitely needs to improve his approach and focus but if he can do that I think he can get back to the level that he displayed in 2009. His all-or-nothing approach at the plate is a concern but I think he has the skills to reach 20-plus home runs. He's currently a nice value pick and someone I would be aggressive in targeting as a bounceback pick this season.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:32 am

Originally posted by crazytown:

Who is the #1 catcher this year. How much will it take to secure him in the auction championship. Keeping in mind that Mauer went for a whopping $35 in last years NYC auction.

Thanks Well, Mauer is still going first among catchers in NFBC drafts and I suspect that will continue all of this off-season. Yes, I understand that Target Field is killing his offensive production -- .314-1-29 there last year compared to .339-8-46 on the road -- but he's still the best catcher in the game for fantasy owners. I can't put Victor Martinez ahead of him just yet.

The only time I can remember predicting a dollar value above $30 for a catcher was with Mike Piazza and at that time he was hitting .334-36-105. Mauer isn't at that level and I wouldn't have paid over $30 for him last year. It's a tough position to pay that much for and I think it will be tough to pay over $28 for any catcher this year. But that's just me.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:33 am

Originally posted by Don M:

Where will our on line drafts be held and if on our site when will we be able to practice? On our new site. I don't know if we will be able to practice beforehand, but I'll find that out.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:45 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

last year i bit hard on sandoval. i took him in the 2nd round of a few drafts (including a main event). prior to last year, his skills looked elite (at least to me). what's your thoughts on him for this year? Nobody knew that Sandoval would have all kinds of personal problems and let his weight go, so I don't think it was a horrendous pick last year. But free swingers like Panda are tough to predict. He reminds me so much of Alfonso Soriano during his glory years because you just wondered when all of that free swinging would catch up to him. It did last year for Sandoval, but there was a whole lot more to his bad season than just plate discipline.

I like this value a lot and it sure looks like he got the message from Giants' management. Heck, he's lost 20 pounds this off-season and is working out with Barry Bonds now on his approach at the plate. I think he's totally focused on having a good year and I think his stock will continue to rise once folks see him at spring training. A new look will bring optimism to fantasy owners and increase his value.

In the five most recent NFBC Slow Drafts that started in early January, he went 92nd, 103rd, 115th, 121st and 147th. That's a huge discrepency and shows you the varied opinions folks have of him. But I think he will go in the 105-115 range soon and maybe higher.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:50 am

Prior to '10 it looked like MIL wanted to run C.Hart out of town. What clicked for him last season and is it sustainable ?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:54 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Prior to '10 it looked like MIL wanted to run C.Hart out of town. What clicked for him last season and is it sustainable ? He's always had the talent but he goes through stretches where he's absolutely the most undisciplined hitter you'll ever see at the plate. He makes Pablo Sandoval look like Rod Carew. I'm not sure he's ever going to bury that tendency but I think what happened last season was he did a better job of being more focused at the plate consistently. That enabled his natural talent to win out.

I'm no pitching coach but if I was facing Hart I'd feed him a steady diet of offspeed pitches off the plate and see if he's disciplined enough not to start chasing them.

Cornhusker · Post by **Cornhusker** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:56 am

How would you construct your roster for a dc league? Whatare the main differences in how you would approach a dc league draft compared to a faab league draft?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 4:36 am

Originally posted by wagner13454:

I'll start the preview for your questions tommorrow.

What do you think is the best strategy for auction leagues?

What are the stats needed to win first place in the NFBC classic and the NFBC auction leagues? You can win auction leagues with different strategies. Some folks like two $35+ players to anchor their teams. Some folks like balance across the board and don't spend more than $20-$25 on any single player. Some folks dump saves or another category and go heavy on hitting. I've tried them all and failed with most of them!!

Timing is everything in auctions as you know. You can find bargains early before folks get a feel of the spending spree. You can hold onto your money and find bargains later. Or you can overpay early and have too much money later, leaving you to outbid one other similar owner for the scrubs. You have to pick your spots and battle for every player if you can. And if your heart tells you to overpay for a certain player you think will have a breakout season, you do it.

Shawn can probably set the benchmarks needed to win NFBC league titles, but last year it sure looked like you needed to be in these ranges:

Runs: 1,100

RBIs: 1,100

BA: .278

HRs: 275

SBs: 175

ERA: 3.90

Wins: 100

Saves: 80

WHIP: 1.310

Ks: 1,300

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but those looked close. Will 2011 be similar to the Year of the Pitcher? We won't know until we see the upcoming season, but these are good benchmarks to target now.