NFBC All-Time Top Money Winners

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:18 am

I suppose a more straight-forward way of asking the question is "do you do your own projections?"

Again, not editorializing on whether one should or should not. The best race car driver might not be able to build the best car, but he can drive it the best.

I have done my own the past 2 years. Previous to that, mostly due to other commitments, I tweaked what others generated.

I do my own rankings though.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:26 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

I suppose a more straight-forward way of asking the question is "do you do your own projections?"

yes.

however u can't go just by projections.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:37 am

however u can't go just by projections. Yup, understood.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:06 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Walla,

I agree about the luck element. I know I am in the minority, but percentage wise, skill/luck needed to succeed would be 30/70. I don't think its that simple. Someone with no skill has almost no chance to win. But once you achieve a certain skill level, luck plays a very large role. If I am playing Britney Spears I think skill will determine the winner 99% of the time. If I am playing Doughboys I think luck will determine it more than half the time. If I'm playing Walla, its somewhere in between.

[/QUOTE]I agree with KJ here. If you were competing against 14 other individuals all with the same skill level and knowledge, at that point, doesn't it become mostly luck? Think of it this way, what if the league was comprised of all sharks..... to illustrate a league full of sharks, let's say they cloned Shawn Childs 14 times and the league was comprised of 15 Shawn Childs, all competing against each other, at that point, wouldn't it be 100% luck?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:18 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

I suppose a more straight-forward way of asking the question is "do you do your own projections?"

Again, not editorializing on whether one should or should not. The best race car driver might not be able to build the best car, but he can drive it the best.

I have done my own the past 2 years. Previous to that, mostly due to other commitments, I tweaked what others generated.

I do my own rankings though. Even still, most people would put a handicap on themselves. My pitching projections are completely original. Almost. Some of the base stats that I feed my system I steal, like if I am stuck on which direction a certain guy's K rate is going and then also looking at minor league translations. Doing your own doesn't mean that you aren't using other sources when they can make you better.

Outside of projections you have to look at how much you are using scouting reports and health reports and so on. Not sure now if those were part of the original intent of the question, but I actually think that if you were in a world with no outside projections and you found yourself hopeless, you were probably hopeless to begin with. Which is another way of saying that the top players would be top players whether you took away certain types of information from the face of the earth or not.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:34 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Here is something I have always wondered...

How much of the skill is "100% your own" and how much is the ability to assimilate tools provided by others?

Let's say that in order to compete in the NFBC, on Jan.1 you were sequestered in a hotel room with nothing at your disposal but a laptop with Excel, 3 years worth of comprehensive stats from everyone who played in the Majors and Minors and the news and notes section from USA Today once Spring training began. You were let out of your room on draft day.

Would you still pony up the $1300 for the Main Event?

By the way, I am not implying someone who does "100% their own work" is any better than anyone else. Besides, trust me, NO ONE does 100% their own work.

Most successful business operators know the best business model is to surround themselves with people capable of doing their job better than the CEO could -- it is the CEOs job to manage those people. In a way, I think managing a fantasy baseball team is analogous.

But that said, simply as a discussion vehicle, who would still enter the main with the above constraints?

OK, you'll get food and can have porn on your laptop as well as Excel. Is this really any different than any other year?

Maybe one Fisher party per week...I'm in!!

ssmarsh · Post by **ssmarsh** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:35 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

I suppose a more straight-forward way of asking the question is "do you do your own projections?" I take the MLB stats from the year before, tweak them to match my leagues categories, sort them in the order I feel most important for my league and go from there.

I keep tabs on players via many web sites and other information sources. I don't do straight projections, but I use last season's stats as a general guide of what I can expect, with tweaking for players in new roles, etc.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:46 pm

Originally posted by ssmarsh:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

I suppose a more straight-forward way of asking the question is "do you do your own projections?" I take the MLB stats from the year before, tweak them to match my leagues categories, sort them in the order I feel most important for my league and go from there.

I keep tabs on players via many web sites and other information sources. I don't do straight projections, but I use last season's stats as a general guide of what I can expect, with tweaking for players in new roles, etc. [/QUOTE]What kinds of finishes have you had?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:52 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by ssmarsh:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

I suppose a more straight-forward way of asking the question is "do you do your own projections?" I take the MLB stats from the year before, tweak them to match my leagues categories, sort them in the order I feel most important for my league and go from there.

I keep tabs on players via many web sites and other information sources. I don't do straight projections, but I use last season's stats as a general guide of what I can expect, with tweaking for players in new roles, etc. [/QUOTE]What kinds of finishes have you had? [/QUOTE]3 Yahoo and 5 ESPN

He doesn't play in the NFBC! YET!! He's on these boards for a reason. If Greg gets his number, he won't be able to resist.

ssmarsh · Post by **ssmarsh** » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:19 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

What kinds of finishes have you had? In the 9 year history of my private league, which is neither Yahoo or ESPN or any other ridiculous free public league, I have 3 titles and 2 second place finishes. I've cut my fantasy baseball teeth in a 10 team, AL only, keeper, roto, auction league.

I'm not saying the level of competition in my private league compares to that of the NFBC, but it works for me.

He doesn't play in the NFBC! YET!! He's on these boards for a reason. If Greg gets his number, he won't be able to resist.It's true that I've never played an NFBC league. I've been lurking for a few years as I'm very curious about the NFBC and I read these boards because I think the people who post here are the real "experts" of the fantasy baseball world, and I love to read what they have to say.

Greg may get his hook in me some day, but I've stayed out mainly because I'm cheap and the no trading thing is a major turnoff for me, even though I totally get why the rule has to be in place.

[ October 15, 2008, 09:22 PM: Message edited by: ssmarsh ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 12:25 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

I suppose a more straight-forward way of asking the question is "do you do your own projections?"

Again, not editorializing on whether one should or should not. The best race car driver might not be able to build the best car, but he can drive it the best.

I have done my own the past 2 years. Previous to that, mostly due to other commitments, I tweaked what others generated.

I do my own rankings though. Despite claims to the contrary, I believe that is what most folks do (i.e. use historical, use others projections and make your own rankings). Each of us will take the same information or some combination of the same information (last years stats, three-year averages, minor league stats, age, injury history, ball park factors, pundit dribblings, tea leaves, Ouiji Board, advice from the mechanic down the street with the really bad toupee, etc.) and make there own rankings. No one method is any more or less original than any other. It is the interpretation of the available data that separates the winners from us losers.

By the way, it was my Ouiji Board that told me to pick Brad Penny last year.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 12:30 am

Originally posted by ssmarsh:

Greg may get his hook in me some day, but I've stayed out mainly because I'm cheap and the no trading thing is a major turnoff for me, even though I totally get why the rule has to be in place. Dude, I am so cheap I still bring my lunch to work in my duct tape for hinges Fess Parker "Daniel Boone" lunch box! If you are really into fantasy sports (and you must be if you have been following these boards for so long without joining) and you pop for the $1,300, you will find it money well spent.

I rank right there with Zola in my Main Event success and I have not regretted a dime spent yet.

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:04 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by cindy:

I've heard Shawn Childs mention this prior, but what are the differences when drafting for a main event team vs. the individual leagues? better yet, why are there different approaches? You might approach an indivdual league the same as the main event, but you might decide to punt a category at some point in the season and still have a chance to win your league. If you did that in the main, your chances of winning the overall might go out the window. It would very difficult to beat 389 other teams by punting a category. It could be done, but you really would have to ace the other 9 categories. So in the main, I would probably try to grind out say saves longer than I would in the ultimate if I had a limited upside in the league standings. [/QUOTE]Not sure I agree about punting a category in the main, as it is very difficult to beat the 389 either way. However, the dumping of one catagory - should increase your numbers in the other 9 - and the number of *other nine catagories* to move from 82% to 92% is lower then that to move from 72% to 82%. I agree that it hasn't been done - yet? Either way it would take an almost prefect storm to walk away the winner, (and your punt would have to pick up some points). [/QUOTE]Not sure I know what you mean with your % figures, but in order to compete for the overall you need to do well--not perfectly--in all 10 categories. This is why Shawn and the other great players not only don't use these strategies but actively discount them. This is not new information to most of us. [/QUOTE]You need to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 85% of the total rank points to win. 92% times 9 = 82.8% which is better then 82% times 10. Doesn't matter how you get there.

Most of us target the 85% numbers across the board and try to build balanced teams, as that is what has worked (won). All I am saying is that there is more than one way to get to the 85% of the total points.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:26 am

You need to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 85% of the total rank points to win. 92% times 9 = 82.8% which is better then 82% times 10. Doesn't matter how you get there.

Most of us target the 85% numbers across the board and try to build balanced teams, as that is what has worked (won). All I am saying is that there is more than one way to get to the 85% of the total points.

Got you. But to my thought, all points are not created equal to the extent that luck could not get you perfect scores in 9 categories...maybe precognition could. Even if you had a future sports almanac like in Back to the Future, you would still just look at everything and say, "Wow, it'd be much easier to get players who do well in all 10 categories, rather than trying to put together an offense that gets 350 homers and 210 stolen bases."

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:15 am

Following up on my previous post about luck/skill.

The skills needed were listed in that previous post. These skills are in various degrees amongst the players. Being very general of the 405 NFBC participants this year, I would group them like this:

Top 50- These are the elite. They can win championships and have the ego and know-how to expect to win a championship.

On the Verge 50- They are knocking on the door, but have flaws in their game that the top 50 have encountered and conquered.

The Middle Class- Some are climbing fast, others declining, some have reached their peak, some will in the future. They are just missing a skill set or need to improve on them.

The Slacker 75- These guys don't get it. They are missing several skill sets. These are the guys that will break out the magazines in the NFBC gift pack and start changing some of their rankings, if they have rankings.

The Bottom 25- "Hey, we're gonna be in Vegas, Tampa, Chicago, or NY that weekend, honey, I'm joining the NFBC!"...or "I hope I get all the Yankees and Mets!"...you get the idea, no chance.

As KJ intimated, the differinces from group to group are small. We take off the bottom 100 and there are 305 players that have a good chance to win. Of course the Elite and those on the verge have a better chance, but like the lotto balls for the NBA draft, having a better chance does not make for a victory.

Luck permeates every facet. It starts with what you see when site surfing, everything you see, hear, or read. Common sense,especially among the elite will filter out the bad info from the good, but there will be things you still wish you had or hadn't seen. Luck continues on to where you draft in your league as well as what city you pick to draft in. Who is in your league, how many are bottom 25 guys? How many are Elite 50? Who are they picking? Are they making you go to plan b? c?

We are picking 30 guys that most of us have never met! Think about that. We have the information that Francoeur has bulked up. What we don't know, in fact, NOBODY knows, except for Francoeur, is that he is hitting scared. Being hit in the head with a pitch during one of the last pre-season games and the pressure of a games played streak has him mentally not ready to play, but he plays.

The season begins and luck magnifies. No control, in fact the only control are the 30 names on our roster and a few weekly moves. We have picked the best names from past performance and future hopes but we have no control over whether there will be someone on second base when you need a sb from Brian Roberts. What we can do is matchup a hitter vs pitchers with past success and vica versa, but doing that on Monday doesen't account for the wind blowing 30 mph in or out on Friday, changing everything.

The good thing is that luck, good or bad, will be shared by everyone. The luck factor can easily carry a middle class player to a win in the NFBC and be the deciding factor between two players of equal skill.

I don't think luck can carry slackers or the bottom 25 to a championship. Not even in a David-Goliath scenario. By the way, as an adult, I get the picture of Goliath being a mustache wearing Jason Giambi on a WWE wrestlers body and David being a Craig Counsell look-a-like...

Summing up. Our skills are narrowed to those 30 names we pick on draft day. A lot goes into those 30 names, but in essence, most of our skill set lies in the 30 names. It boils down to what every coach in every sport wants to do, and that is give our team the best chance of winning.

Luck permeates every area, including the 30 names and how we got them. Our job is to heighten our skill set so that a little less luck won't knock us down more than a peg or two. This is where the Elite will have a distinct advantage. But, even the Elite will get beat by someone who slept at a Holiday Inn and has the luck of a leprecahn.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:27 am

I've received a few pm's on this post, two asking the same question. Just in case there are others that are curious....

No, I am not going to judge another individual player or team as to which category they belong to. After this year I have enough self-doubt to not feel comfortable with my team in any category, let alone another team.

The 30/70 split is best guess on my part and not based on any statistical data.

To win even a league championship, someone from the Slackers or bottom 25 would have to have a lot of luck, especially at the draft, and educate themselves enough during the season to merit middle class status.

Can a player new to the NFBC win the $100,000?

There are two advantages that all NFBC players share. One is the know-how of how faab works and approximately how each free agent is valued. Two is the overall higher level of play, that for the most part, will dwarf the yahoo, espn, or local leagues. On the other hand, a new player may have a new outlook or slant, or new strategy that will allow them to cash in. A new player may also have all the skills but not the financial means to enter in previous years.

Rookies have won league championships every year, yes, a newcomer can win $100,000.

[ October 20, 2008, 04:40 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:37 am

Dan, thanks for putting all of the time into your analysis of luck vs. skill. When I first saw your post that skill was 30% of the equation and luck was 70%, my first thought was "you are crazy." Now that I've seen your explanation, I still think "you are crazy!!!" I would say skill is easily 70 percent of the equation and likely much higher in baseball.

One of the differences between the NFBC and the NFFC is the skill needed to grind the free agent wire week in and week out. To do that for 26 weeks and always be a step ahead of the competition is tough work. And everyone knows that because the more leagues they add the harder it gets to win even one league. So I honestly believe that if you're not a grinder in the NFBC -- which is a skill -- you'll have trouble beating 14 other folks for a league title.

There is luck involved in everything and fantasy baseball is no different. You need good luck to stay healthy, to get in the right league of owners, to pick up the right free agents, to start the right players, to get the right draft spot. But skill still is involved in every one of those aspects.

It's a fun topic to discuss and there really is no "right" answer. You are right in how you view this and I might be "right" in my own opinion. No problems either way, but the longer the NFBC goes on the more I think we'll see the elite owners continue to rise to the top. But of course anyone can win a league title or even the overall title, which is the beauty and the fun of this competition. Good luck in 2009.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 7:51 am

This was an interesting thread that was created in October when a lot of NFBC owners took their "vacation" from these boards. There are a lot of all-time NFBC money winner lists on this thread and I thought it would be fun to bring it back to the top of this Forum for anyone who didn't see it the first time. Again, congratulations to all of the owners who made this list and good luck in 2009.

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:18 pm

In regards to the luck/skill debate: I find it odd that no one has mentioned the the main factor that makes it inordinately difficult to win the main event. The level of competition in each league, which you have absolutely no control over, is a huge factor. You can be a top notch fantasy player, however, in a tough league filled with other quality players you have a very slim chance. Certainly your chances are enhanced with weak competition. I am curious about what people think about the skill needed for a draft as oppposed to an auction. It has been my experience that an auction NL or AL only would be the highest level of skill needed. Good luck to all this year.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:40 pm

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

In regards to the luck/skill debate: I find it odd that no one has mentioned the the main factor that makes it inordinately difficult to win the main event. The level of competition in each league, which you have absolutely no control over, is a huge factor. i mentioned it on page two of this thread.

Snord35 · Post by **Snord35** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:21 pm

"I find it odd that no one has mentioned the the main factor that makes it inordinately difficult to win the main event. The level of competition in each league, which you have absolutely no control over, is a huge factor. You can be a top notch fantasy player, however, in a tough league filled with other quality players you have a very slim chance. Certainly your chances are enhanced with weak competition."

In 2007 I was in a league where we had 4 teams from the top 20 overall in 2006. At the time this was the rankings.

Karl Misehe 4th, 5th Lifetime

Pat DePirro 6th, 60th Lifetime

Todd Nord 15th, 69th Lifetime

Sandi Kleemann 17th, 38th Lifetime

Also add in the likes of

Jeff Thomas 51st Lifetime, 2004 5th Overall

David Cushard 81st Lifetime, 2004 19th Overall

Johseph Monaco 53rd Lifetime, 2005 44th Overall

Scott Stauffer 175th Lifetime, 2004 49th Overall

Rob Coffee 132nd Lifetime, 2005 59th Overall

Now I was in a league with 8 others who had done something in the NFBC and I thought I would be in for a long draft. Ended up not being the case as I was getting players I wanted every round and left the draft feeling I had a very good team. I ended up 2nd in my league and 65th overall and the top overall guy was 62nd from our league but as I remember no one ran away with the title as the top 4-5 teams were very close. Also that league ranked last vs. other leagues.

I would say in a deep league you could still win the overall but it can bring you down. Everyone can have an off year or a hard time with the draft. I think any league that has 4-5 teams in the running for the title would not have a shot at the overall. To win it all you need a solid draft and some key FA pickups to keep the rest of the pack behind you.

Todd

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 7:15 am

That last post made me wonder...

Is there a "magic number" for "HITS" for a season?

Looking over the data from years past...could we say you have to hit on 4 or 5 or 6 players having breakout years or career years to win?

(Including the ww)

Just curious if there were solid trends like that.

I know you have to take a few chances to win...but how many?

~Lance

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 8:22 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

That last post made me wonder...

Is there a "magic number" for "HITS" for a season?

~Lance Yes. The majic number is 30. After round one, take a hit (say 1.5 oz), after round two, take another hit, and so on. By round 30, you will have "...the bessht team im da WHOLE xxxxxxx dwaft...."

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 8:59 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

That last post made me wonder...

Is there a "magic number" for "HITS" for a season?

~Lance Yes. The majic number is 30. After round one, take a hit (say 1.5 oz), after round two, take another hit, and so on. By round 30, you will have "...the bessht team im da WHOLE xxxxxxx dwaft...." [/QUOTE]Well, I know for damn sure drinking water all draft long didn't help at all!

Won't make that mistake twice.

~Lance